Analyst Bullish on Pfizer's Cancer Drug Pipeline

Guggenheim upgrades Pfizer to $36, betting on $4.6B potential for cancer drug Mevrometostat. Stock hits 52-week high.

While many on Wall Street maintain a cautious stance toward Pfizer, one prominent analyst has broken from the pack with a notably optimistic outlook. Guggenheim has upgraded its price target for the pharmaceutical giant, reinforcing its buy recommendation. The core of this bullish sentiment is a promising prostate cancer drug candidate that analysts believe could generate billions in revenue in the coming years.

A Promising Contender in Prostate Cancer

Market strategist Vamil Divan raised the firm's price target to $36, a figure that sits significantly above the average market consensus of approximately $28. This upgrade is primarily driven by optimism surrounding the Phase 3 trial known as MEVPRO-1. In this study, Pfizer is testing its drug candidate, Mevrometostat, on patients with advanced prostate cancer. The therapy is designed to precisely block abnormal gene activity, aiming to prevent resistance to hormone treatments. The pivotal data from this trial is anticipated in the second half of 2026.

Guggenheim has assessed the probability of success for the drug across its various study phases as follows:
* MEVPRO-1 (second-line therapy): 75%
* MEVPRO-2 (first-line therapy): 55%
* MEVPRO-3 (hormone-sensitive therapy): 25%

From an investment perspective, the firm sees an asymmetric risk-reward profile. A successful outcome for the main study could theoretically add $2 per share in value, whereas a complete failure across all three trials is estimated to pose a downside risk of only $1 per share. Guggenheim projects peak sales for Mevrometostat could reach as high as $4.6 billion, substantially more than what is currently reflected in the broader market consensus.

Solid Oncology Foundation Supports Outlook

This positive assessment is not reliant on a single project. Pfizer's oncology division reported a 9% growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, supported by additional successes such as recent positive data from the TALAPRO-3 study, which also targets prostate cancer. This fundamental strength is gradually being recognized by the market. The stock closed yesterday at €23.91, trading exactly at its 52-week high and marking a solid gain of around 11% since the start of the year.

Despite the encouraging pipeline, political risks remain a factor of uncertainty for future margins. Potential price regulations within the U.S. healthcare system could pose challenges. Investors will gain fresh insights into the company's operational progress on May 5, when Pfizer is scheduled to release its financial results for the first quarter of 2026.