Almonty's Clock Is Ticking: A Board Decision, First Revenues, and a Wolfram Market in Flux

Almonty Industries must decide on a reverse stock split by April 30 and release first Sangdong mine revenue, as stock surges 149% amid tungsten supply crisis.

The next few days will test whether Almonty Industries can translate operational momentum into a re-rating. By April 30, the board must decide on a potential reverse stock split, and within weeks, the company will publish its first quarterly results featuring commercial revenue from the Sangdong mine in South Korea. Both events carry weight for a stock that has already surged roughly 149 percent since the start of the year.

The Reverse Split Question

Shareholders have already granted the board authority to consolidate up to five existing shares into one new share, with the ratio and timing left to management's discretion. The board could also scrap the plan entirely. A reverse split would reduce the share count and lift the price proportionally, a move aimed at making the stock more palatable to institutional investors. The market will get further clarity on the future capital structure at the annual general meeting on June 8.

The stock last traded at 29.94 Canadian dollars, roughly 6.6 percent below its 52-week high of April 17. The relative strength index sits near 77, signaling overbought conditions — though with annualized volatility above 100 percent, that is hardly unusual for this name.

Sangdong's First Real Test

The May quarterly report will mark a watershed moment: it will include the first concrete production figures from the Sangdong mine's ramp-up. The processing plant, designed to handle around 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, is already running and expected to yield roughly 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. DA Davidson anticipates full commercial operations by the second quarter of 2026 — essentially within weeks. Every operational update from management now carries immediate share-price implications.

A Phase 2 expansion is slated for 2027, which would double processing capacity to approximately 1.2 million tonnes of ore per year. At that stage, Sangdong could supply an estimated 40 percent of global tungsten demand outside China. The deposit's ore grade of roughly 0.51 percent tungsten trioxide is about three times the global average.

Revenue for 2025 stood at around $32.5 million, up nearly 13 percent year-over-year. The real test will come when Sangdong demonstrates it can deliver what the valuation has already priced in.

A Wolfram Market Under Siege

The macro backdrop remains extraordinary. The price of ammonium paratungstate has climbed from roughly $1,944 per metric tonne unit in February to about $2,526 in April 2026. The catalyst is China's export policy. Beijing imposed export controls on several tungsten products in early 2025, then replaced the quota system with a state-controlled export permit limited to just 15 approved companies. The result: APT exports collapsed from 782 tonnes in 2024 to just 243 tonnes in the first 11 months of 2025, and by early 2026 they were approaching zero.

Japanese suppliers have already warned Samsung and SK Hynix that their stocks of tungsten hexafluoride — critical for 3D NAND chip production — could run out as early as this summer. Substitution is barely feasible for most industrial applications, and recycling cannot scale quickly enough to fill the gap.

The Pentagon Mandate and Tariff Exemption

Washington has explicitly exempted Almonty's tungsten ores, concentrates, and oxides from US retaliatory tariffs, underpinned by a long-term supply agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders in Pennsylvania. Starting January 1, 2027, US defense contractors will be required to source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese supply chains. That deadline is less than nine months away and is increasingly concentrating institutional capital on Western-aligned producers.

Almonty's positioning is clear: at full capacity, Sangdong could cover up to 40 percent of global tungsten demand outside China. The timing aligns with a structural shift that analysts are racing to price in.

Analyst Conviction and Institutional Inflows

On April 17, Texas Capital initiated coverage with a buy rating and a $25 price target. B. Riley Financial and DA Davidson had already set targets of $23 and $25 respectively in March. The average analyst rating across three firms is "Strong Buy." The number of institutional funds holding Almonty recently jumped more than 55 percent to 107.

On a 12-month basis, the stock has gained roughly 715 percent. The rally has been breathtaking, but the next two weeks will determine whether the fundamentals can keep pace with the narrative. The board's decision on the reverse split by Wednesday is the first concrete test of how management intends to shape the capital structure ahead of the May quarterly report and the June annual meeting.