Aixtron Hits Fresh High but Berenberg Cuts Rating as Optoelectronics Orders Outpace SiC Recovery

Aixtron shares hit €52.82 peak, but Berenberg downgrades to Hold on valuation despite raising forecasts; Jefferies and JPMorgan bullish. AGM approves dividend, highlights GaN deal with Renesas.

Aixtron’s stock has rocketed 170% since the start of 2026, touching a new 52-week peak of €52.82 on Wednesday. Yet the scale of the rally has prompted a rare split on the analyst side: one major house has just trimmed its rating even while raising its profit forecasts.

Berenberg lifted its price target to €42 from €31 but downgraded the shares to “Hold” from “Buy.” The trigger, according to the bank, is that the recent surge has already priced in the easing of supply bottlenecks in the optoelectronics space. The move is striking because Berenberg simultaneously bumped up its revenue and EBIT estimates for the coming years, with optoelectronics sales alone seen hitting €243 million in 2026 and growing at an annual clip of 29% through 2028. The operational story remains strong, the analysts argue — only the valuation has become stretched.

Two other houses take a more bullish view. Jefferies rates Aixtron a “Buy” with a €55.30 target, pointing to a solid order book and the company’s leadership in compound semiconductors. JPMorgan sticks with “Overweight” and a €54.50 target, provided the momentum in new semiconductor materials holds.

The contrasting opinions landed just as Aixtron held its annual general meeting in Aachen. Shareholders approved a dividend of €0.15 per share, with the ex-date set for 14 May and payment on 18 May. Turnout reached 46.6% of the share capital, and both the management board and supervisory board were granted discharge for fiscal 2025. CEO Dr. Felix Grawert highlighted a robust balance sheet and long-term market drivers, while CFO Dr. Christian Danninger also received shareholder backing.

A key strategic highlight at the AGM was the delivery of multiple specialised MOCVD systems to Japan’s Renesas, aimed at boosting high-volume production of power devices based on gallium nitride (GaN). Aixtron sees GaN as a core growth engine, and the Renesas deal underscores its position as a leading supplier of deposition equipment for compound semiconductors.

Order book tells a tale of two markets

The underlying business signals explain why valuations are so fiercely debated. In the first quarter, Aixtron booked revenue of €59.4 million — a 47% decline year-on-year — but still within its own guidance. The order intake, however, jumped to €171.4 million, driven by massive demand for optoelectronics systems. That segment alone contributed €118 million, or roughly 70% of total orders.

By contrast, silicon carbide (SiC) accounted for just 14% of equipment revenue, as customers continue to run below capacity. The company expects a recovery in SiC in the second half of 2026 or early 2027. For the current quarter, Aixtron forecasts around €110 million in revenue.

The order backlog at the end of March stood at €359.1 million, up 17% from the previous quarter. That backlog supports a raised full-year revenue target of roughly €560 million for 2026. GaN utilisation rates are expected to improve through the year, but for now the heavy lifting falls to optoelectronics.

The annualised volatility in Aixtron’s shares has run at around 90%, reflecting the sharp swings in sentiment. The stock currently trades more than 35% above its 50-day moving average, leaving little room for error in the execution of the growth plan. The next quarterly numbers will test whether the operational momentum can keep pace with a share price that has already run far ahead of its earlier lows.