Nel ASA’s Stock Surges 57% in 2026, but a 73% Plunge in New Orders Tells a Different Story

Nel ASA shares surge 9% to a 52-week high despite Q1 revenue slipping 5% and order intake plummeting 73%, with analysts cautious on valuation and potential impairment risks.

Nel ASA’s share price has been on a tear, climbing more than 9% on the day to hit a fresh 52-week high of €0.30. The year-to-date gain now stands at a punchy 57%. Yet behind the rally lies a set of first-quarter numbers that give any value-conscious investor pause.

Revenue for the opening three months of 2026 slipped to 152 million Norwegian kroner, down from 175 million a year earlier — a decline of roughly 5%. The net loss narrowed slightly to 144 million kroner, while EBITDA came in at minus 100 million kroner, a 15 million kroner improvement on the prior-year period. The headline that has analysts most concerned, however, is the collapse in order intake. New business cratered 73% to just 85 million kroner, dragging the total order backlog down 24% to 1.113 billion kroner.

That deteriorating pipeline has not gone unnoticed by the sell side. Berenberg maintained its “Neutral” rating but trimmed its price target to 2.30 kroner, citing valuation risks. Citigroup followed suit with a reduction to 2.40 kroner. The caution stands in stark contrast to the euphoria in the stock.

Management has already taken the knife to costs. Nel cut its workforce by roughly a quarter, and the company’s cash pile of 1.4 billion kroner should keep operations funded through the end of 2026, according to the board.

A Hidden Risk in Herøya

Beneath the surface, another financial headache is brewing. Nel is currently reviewing the carrying value of two idled production lines at its Herøya facility, which were built for atmospheric alkaline electrolysers. The company must decide whether to restart, shutter, or sell the assets. An impairment charge is very much on the table — and that would add further strain to a balance sheet that already absorbed 799 million kroner in writedowns during the 2025 financial year.

The timing is awkward. On May 6, Nel is set to unveil its new pressurised alkaline electrolyser platform, a product CEO Håkon Volldal has described as “a milestone for the entire electrolyser segment.” The company has already secured up to €135 million in EU funding — covering roughly 60% of eligible costs — to help scale the technology. Nel claims the new system can cut capital expenditure by 40% to 60% and operating costs by 10% to 20%. Larger deliveries are pencilled in for 2027.

But the launch also raises the spectre of obsolescence for the older Herøya lines. If the new platform renders them redundant, a write-off could follow — an unwelcome one-off hit to an already stretched balance sheet.

PEM Contracts Offer a Glimmer of Light

While the alkaline division waits for its moment in the sun, Nel’s PEM business has delivered two small but meaningful wins. Within days of each other, the company signed contracts worth roughly $7 million apiece.

The first came from Mesure Process, a European subsidiary of Synqo Energies, and marks the second order from that customer. The containerised units will supply hydrogen to refuelling stations and industrial clients. The second order was placed by the Douglas County Public Utility District in the United States — the first time a public utility has bought and operated a Nel electrolyser. The unit will use surplus hydropower to run the electrolyser, helping to protect turbines from wear. Production will take place in Wallingford, Connecticut, with operations slated to begin in the first half of 2027.

Combined, the two deals are worth around $14 million — not a game-changer, but a welcome operational bright spot in an otherwise subdued quarter.

Sector Tailwinds, but Nel Must Deliver

The broader environment is improving. Bloom Energy posted first-quarter revenue of $751 million, more than double the prior year, and raised its full-year guidance to between $3.4 billion and $3.8 billion. The driver is surging demand from AI data centres for decentralised power, which strengthens the case for electrolytic hydrogen as a flexible energy carrier.

Nel is riding that wave of sentiment, but the stock’s valuation now rests on execution. First customer discussions for the new alkaline platform are already underway. The market wants signed contracts, not just product specs.

The next major checkpoint comes on July 15, when Nel releases its half-year results. By then, the May 6 product launch needs to have translated into tangible orders. If it doesn’t, the gap between the share price and the underlying business will only grow harder to justify.