Nike stock falls as Morgan Stanley turns bearish and S&P 100 exit looms
Published on 09/10/2026 at 14:14 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS
Nike, Inc. stock (ISIN US6541061031) closed at USD 38.10 on the New York Stock Exchange on September 9, 2026, down 3.3 percent from the prior session and sitting just above a recent 52-week low around USD 37.90 as reported by Sports Business Journal and Forbes.
Analysts split sharply on Nike outlook
On September 10, 2026, Morgan Stanley reinitiated coverage of Nike with an Underweight rating and a price target of USD 31, implying about 20 percent downside from current levels and citing risks of downward earnings revisions and valuation pressure; this stance was detailed by GuruFocus on September 10, 2026.
Meanwhile, BMO Capital has initiated coverage of Nike with an Underperform rating and a price target of USD 30 per share, which represents more than 21 percent downside from the recent closing level around USD 38; this more cautious view was reported on September 8, 2026 by Ad-hoc-news.
In contrast to these bearish calls, Needham analyst Tom Nikic maintains a Buy rating on Nike with a USD 75 price target, effectively suggesting that the stock could roughly double from its current level near USD 38; this more optimistic view was highlighted on September 9, 2026 by TheStreet.
Consensus targets still point to upside
Despite high-profile downgrades, the broader analyst community still sees room for gains from the depressed share price. According to an overview compiled by Ad-hoc-news based on MarketScreener data as of September 9, 2026, the average target price for Nike shares stands at USD 49.87, about 30.9 percent above the latest closing price of USD 38.10, with the highest target at USD 94 and the lowest at USD 23.
A separate analyst summary on September 10, 2026 from The Globe and Mail notes that analyst consensus on Nike is Hold with an average price target of USD 49.33, representing roughly 28.1 percent upside from a share price of USD 38.10.
Additional data discussed by Ad-hoc-news, citing 24/7 Wall St on September 8, 2026, points out that Nike has been trading around USD 38.40, well below an average analyst target of USD 50.46, implying approximately 31 percent potential upside based on those targets, with fiscal 2027 earnings-per-share consensus estimated at USD 1.72 and trailing and forward price-to-earnings multiples of about 18 and 23 respectively.
S&P 100 removal underscores market pressure
The analyst debate comes as Nike faces an imminent change in index membership that has added to investor unease. S&P Dow Jones Indices announced it will remove Nike from the S&P 100 index on September 21, 2026, reflecting its diminished market value relative to other large U.S. companies; this was reported on September 9, 2026 by Sports Business Journal.
According to a memo reviewed by Yahoo Finance on September 9, 2026, Nike’s investor relations and communications team reassured executives that the company will remain a member of the broader S&P 500 index and that the S&P 100 exit does not affect its business, strategy, operations or public listing.
Sports Business Journal noted that Nike’s stock is down roughly 49 percent over the past year and that shares closed on September 9, 2026 at USD 38.10, slightly above a 52-week low of USD 37.90, underlining why the index provider no longer considers the valuation large-cap enough for the S&P 100.
Dividend and valuation draw scrutiny
Beyond index membership, dividend sustainability and valuation have become key talking points for investors. GuruFocus data cited on September 10, 2026 by GuruFocus show that Nike offers a dividend yield of 4.41 percent with a payout ratio of 78 percent and a three-year dividend growth rate of 7.1 percent.
Using its proprietary GF Value model, GuruFocus estimates Nike’s intrinsic value at USD 72.99 per share, indicating the stock is trading about 48.8 percent below this fair value at a market price around USD 37.35, and assigning a GF Score of 59 out of 100 that reflects strong profitability but weaker growth and momentum metrics.
MarketBeat’s latest overview on September 10, 2026 reports that the stock presently has a consensus rating of Hold and a consensus price target of USD 51.33, while also noting an annual dividend of USD 1.64 per share that, at recent prices near USD 37 to USD 38, corresponds to a dividend yield of roughly 4.4 percent; this was summarized by MarketBeat.
China and product risks weigh on recovery
Analysts have highlighted several operational and regional risks that could affect Nike’s turnaround trajectory. Morgan Stanley’s team argues that the market is underwriting recovery faster than evidence supports, particularly in China, where a distribution exit with two online retail partners could create downside that is not yet reflected in current estimates; this was outlined by Yahoo Finance on September 10, 2026.
An article on September 10, 2026 from IBTimes emphasizes that Nike shares slipped to around USD 37.06 midday, down 2.74 percent, with the stock hovering just above a fresh 52-week low and investors treating the turnaround as a multiyear project due to unresolved challenges in China and a softer outlook.
Further caution comes from a ratings roundup on September 9, 2026 in which UBS reiterated a Neutral rating on Nike with a USD 48 price target, RBC Capital maintained a Sector Perform rating with a USD 45 target and Stifel kept a Hold rating with a USD 45 target; these figures and concerns about lifestyle demand and Jordan brand performance were compiled by Investing.com.
Stock hovers near 52-week low
Per recent trading data summarized by Forbes, Nike stock closed at USD 38.10 on the NYSE on September 8, 2026, after trading between an intraday low of USD 37.90 and a high of USD 38.74, with volume of about 31,397,588 shares and a market capitalization near USD 57 billion at that price level; the same closing price of USD 38.10 and intraday low around USD 37.90 were reiterated for September 9, 2026 by Sports Business Journal and Ad-hoc-news.
At this share price around USD 38, Nike trades close to its recent 52-week low in the USD 37.90 to USD 37.95 area and far below the average analyst target near USD 49.87, creating a wide gap between cautious calls such as the USD 30 and USD 31 targets from BMO Capital and Morgan Stanley and more optimistic scenarios like Needham’s USD 75 target that would more than double the current valuation.
Nike stock - key data
- Company: Nike, Inc.
- ISIN: US6541061031
- Ticker: NKE
- Trading venue: NYSE
- Price (as of September 9, 2026, 16:00): 38.10 USD
- Market capitalization: 57,000,000,000 USD (as of September 9, 2026)
- Sector / Industry: Consumer Discretionary / Footwear and Apparel
- Index membership: S&P 500
