Nike stock falls to 12-month low as S&P 100 exit and cautious analyst calls weigh
Published on 09/09/2026 at 14:23 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS
Nike, Inc. (ISIN US6541061031) stock closed at USD 38.10 on the New York Stock Exchange on September 8, 2026, down 0.78 percent and hovering just above a fresh 52-week low as investors digest its upcoming removal from the S&P 100 index and a series of cautious analyst calls.
Index exit and analyst downgrade pressure Nike
According to Fortune on September 8, 2026, Nike will be removed from the S&P 100 index before trading opens on September 21, 2026 after an estimated USD 200 billion wipeout in market capitalization from a peak of about USD 264 billion in November 2021 to roughly USD 57 billion today.
Meanwhile, BMO Capital has initiated coverage of Nike with an Underperform rating, setting a price target of USD 30 per share, which implies more than 21 percent downside from the recent closing level; this rating and target were reported on September 8, 2026 by Investing.com.
Share price near 52-week low and valuation context
Shares of Nike have traded near their 52-week low in recent sessions: on September 3, 2026 the stock hit a new 52-week low of USD 37.95 before recovering slightly to close at USD 38.40, as highlighted by Zacks via TradingView on September 8, 2026.
As of the close on September 8, 2026, Nike finished at USD 38.10 on the NYSE with an intraday low of USD 37.90 and trading volume around USD 1.21 billion in dollar terms according to data cited by Seoul Economic Daily on September 9, 2026.
Based on Nike’s current market value of about USD 57 billion described by Fortune, the stock trades at a fraction of its November 2021 peak when it was valued near USD 264 billion and shares changed hands at USD 179.10, underscoring a decline of about 78 percent from that high.
Recent fundamentals and dividend profile
For the most recently completed fiscal year 2026, covering June 2025 to May 2026, Nike generated revenue of USD 46.4 billion, only slightly above the prior year’s USD 46.3 billion, while currency-adjusted revenue effectively declined by about 2 percent, as reported on September 9, 2026 by Seoul Economic Daily.
Nike’s dividend has become an increasingly visible part of the investment case: the company currently pays an annual dividend of USD 1.64 per share, equivalent to about USD 0.41 per share each quarter, which at a share price of roughly USD 38.40 translates into a forward dividend yield of about 4.3 percent; these figures were summarized on September 8, 2026 by TheStreet.
According to the same analysis from TheStreet, Nike’s annual dividend expense stands near USD 2.43 billion, and the company’s payout ratio is estimated at around 80 percent of projected free cash flow, with free cash flow expected to increase from about USD 2.18 billion in fiscal 2026 to USD 3.04 billion in fiscal 2027.
Analyst consensus and differing views on Nike stock
The broader analyst community still sees upside from current levels: the average target price for Nike shares stands at USD 49.87, about 30.9 percent above the latest closing price of USD 38.10, with the high target at USD 94 and the low at USD 23; these consensus figures and the latest close were compiled as of September 9, 2026 by MarketScreener, which characterizes the average recommendation as Hold.
Contrast exists between this consensus and individual analyst calls: in addition to BMO Capital’s Underperform rating and USD 30 target, Needham analyst Tom Nikic maintains a Buy rating on Nike with a USD 75 price target, effectively suggesting that the stock could roughly double from its current level; this more optimistic stance was noted on September 9, 2026 by TheStreet.
Another overview from 24/7 Wall St on September 8, 2026 highlighted that Nike trades around USD 38.40, well below an average analyst target of USD 50.46, implying roughly 31 percent potential upside based on those targets, while also pointing out trailing and forward price-to-earnings multiples of about 18 and 23 respectively and fiscal 2027 earnings-per-share consensus estimated at USD 1.72.
Operational trends and regional challenges
Operationally, Nike has emphasized growth in running and wholesale channels even as some regions face pressure: on the fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings call, summarized on September 8, 2026 by TheStreet, management highlighted that Nike Running delivered five consecutive quarters of double-digit growth, adding roughly USD 1 billion to the business and gaining about five percentage points of market share in Western Europe and North America.
In the same fiscal 2026 period, wholesale revenue grew 4 percent for the full year, supported by double-digit growth in North America, according to the analysis by TheStreet, while Greater China revenue fell 17 percent in the fourth quarter alone as the company continued to work through inventory cleanup and focus on full-price selling in that region.
Stock level and investor takeaways
At the latest reference point, Nike stock is trading at USD 38.10 on the NYSE as of the close on September 8, 2026, leaving it close to the recent 52-week low around USD 37.95 and far below the average analyst target near USD 49.87, with a market capitalization of roughly USD 57 billion and a forward dividend yield of about 4.3 percent at a share price around USD 38 to USD 38.40.
Nike stock key data
- Company: Nike, Inc.
- ISIN: US6541061031
- Ticker: NKE
- Trading venue: NYSE
- Price (as of September 8, 2026, 4:00): 38.10 USD
- Market capitalization: 57,000,000,000 USD (as of September 8, 2026)
- Sector / Industry: Consumer Discretionary / Footwear & Apparel
- Index membership: S&P 500
