Analyst Doubles SpaceX Rocket Valuation to $546 Billion After Blue Origin Round; Stock Hits New Low at $145.20

SpaceX shares hit record low post-IPO, while a Wall Street analyst doubles rocket business valuation to $546B using Blue Origin's funding as a benchmark. Starlink deployments accelerate, but stock remains volatile ahead of first earnings.

The math behind SpaceX is getting harder to ignore — and harder to pin down. On Wednesday the stock touched an intraday low of $145.20, a record since its June IPO, and closed at $149.29, barely above the first-day opening price of $150. Twelve hours later, a Falcon 9 booster launched for the 36th time. And in between, a Wall Street analyst effectively rewrote the price tag on the company's rocket business.

William Blair’s Louie DiPalma used Blue Origin’s first external fundraising round — $10 billion at a $130 billion valuation — as a benchmark to double his estimate for SpaceX’s launch and rocket operations. His new figure: $546 billion, up from $300 billion. DiPalma maintained his “Outperform” rating, and while the firm does not set a formal price target, its baseline implies a value of $220 per share. Blue Origin’s own rocket, New Glenn, remains grounded after an engine-test explosion destroyed its only launch pad this year — a reminder of the technological gap SpaceX currently enjoys.

The record booster, designated B1067, lifted off from Cape Canaveral on Thursday morning carrying 29 Starlink satellites. It first flew in June 2021 on a NASA cargo mission and later carried the Crew-3 and Crew-4 astronaut crews. With 36 flights, it now trails only NASA’s Space Shuttle Discovery, which holds the all-time reusability record at 39 missions. The launch was also the 80th Falcon 9 flight of 2026; roughly 80% of all SpaceX missions this year have been dedicated to expanding the Starlink constellation.

Starlink’s growth has accelerated. Data from astronomer Jonathan McDowell show SpaceX deployed 1,589 satellites in the first half of 2026, up from 1,489 in the same period last year. The company has now launched more than 12,400 Starlink satellites, with nearly 11,000 still active. The booster itself landed on a drone ship in the Atlantic about eight minutes after launch, extending a long streak of successful recoveries.

The operational successes, however, have done little to lift the stock. After debuting at $135 on June 12 and surging nearly 20% to close at $160.95 on the first day, SpaceX shares climbed to an all-time high of $225.64 on June 16. Since then they have shed more than a third of that value. The stock briefly bounced with its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, rising about 1% to $158.77, but most index-fund buying had already been priced in — a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern. The ensuing 7% drop erased those gains.

That decline has attracted bargain hunters. Cathie Wood pumped $27 million into SpaceX through four ARK ETFs, making the position the fourth-largest in her fund family at roughly 4.5% of total assets. It was her third purchase since the IPO. On Monday the ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF added another 5,711 shares, worth about $917,000 at that day’s closing price of $160.42.

The next major catalyst arrives on August 6, when SpaceX will report its first quarterly earnings as a public company. That same day, the insider lock-up period expires, allowing about 20% of insider shares to be sold on the open market, with an additional 10% contingent on meeting certain price conditions. The alignment of earnings and a potential flood of shares is likely to keep investors on edge.

Wall Street’s views on fair value remain wide. Goldman Sachs started coverage with a $205 target, Morgan Stanley at $300, and Bank of America at $235 — all three acted as underwriters on the IPO. Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale initiated coverage on July 7 with a “Strong Buy” rating. Together, they frame a debate that goes beyond the stock’s recent slide: how to value a company that simultaneously operates rockets, a satellite network, and — since February’s merger with xAI — artificial intelligence infrastructure. The record booster and faster Starlink deployment offer operational proof points, but the market is still waiting for a narrative that lifts the shares above $150.