Tungsten on the Geopolitical Edge: Almonty’s Sangdong Ramp-Up and the US-EU Push for Non-Chinese Supply

Shareholders decide on Phase 2 of Sangdong tungsten mine, targeting 40% of non-China demand by 2027, as geopolitical bans and surging prices boost the thesis.

As a shareholder vote looms, Almonty Industries faces a pivotal moment that could reshape the global tungsten landscape. On June 9, investors will decide whether to back Phase 2 of the Sangdong tungsten project in South Korea, a move designed to lift throughput to 1.2 million tonnes of ore per year by 2027 and to position the company as a major supplier outside China.

The core bet rests on doubling Sangdong’s processing capacity to 1.2 million tonnes per year, a step that would give Almonty about 40 percent of the world’s tungsten demand outside China. The plan builds on a first phase that has already moved into commercial operation at the end of March, handling 640,000 tonnes of ore annually and yielding around 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. The ore grades at Sangdong sit around 0.51 percent tungsten trioxide, a level that underpins a structural cost advantage relative to global peers.

Geopolitical tailwinds are reinforcing the thesis. The United States will prohibit the use of Chinese tungsten in its military equipment starting January 2027, a development that amplifies demand for non-Chinese supply sources. In parallel, the European Union has earmarked tungsten for its first coordinated strategic reserve to reduce dependence on China, alongside other critical minerals such as rare earths and gallium. For Almonty, these dynamics expand the pool of potential customers beyond traditional markets and spotlight Sangdong as a domestic, Western-aligned supply anchor.

Prices in the market for tungsten-related materials have moved decisively. Ammonium paratungstate (APT) rose from about 900 USD per metric ton unit to more than 3,000 USD, a gain of over 230 percent. The trigger was China’s shift from export quotas to a licensing regime controlled by a small group of state entities, effectively freezing a portion of exports in early 2026 and tightening global supply for a period.

From a financial standpoint, Almonty’s first quarter of 2026 underscored the price-driven backdrop. Revenue jumped 221 percent to 25.4 million USD, and adjusted EBITDA swung from negative 2.4 million USD to positive 6.1 million USD. Operating cash flow improved to 9.7 million USD from a prior negative 4.4 million USD. As of March 31, the company held 259.9 million USD in cash, providing headroom for the planned expansion. A non-cash accounting drag remained in the form of a net loss of 5.3 million CAD, largely attributable to revaluations driven by the rapid jump in Almonty’s stock price.

Beyond tungsten, Sangdong sits near a second growth pillar: a molybdenum project just 150 metres from the mine. Management has secured all mining and environmental permits, with a start targeted for late 2026. The site’s planned annual molybdenum production is 5,600 tonnes, backed by a offtake agreement with SeAH M&S, South Korea’s largest molybdenum processor, at a minimum price of 19.00 USD per pound. The project’s estimated mine life runs around 60 years.

On the market front, Almonty trades around 25.80 CAD, translating to a market capitalization near 7.35 billion CAD. Twelve-month revenue is reported at about 50 million CAD, implying a price-to-sales multiple of roughly 147x. The share sits just below its 50-day moving average of 26.04 CAD, and has traded within a band that left an April intraday high of 32.07 CAD behind it. A current technical snapshot shows an RSI near 70, indicating overbought conditions by some measures, while Cantor Fitzgerald and Bank of America have issued constructive notes with price targets that span from 20 to beyond 26 USD on Nasdaq-listed Almonty shares.

Management changes align with the expansion plan. On June 1, Jorge Beristain assumed the role of Chief Financial Officer. He arrived from high-profile financial institutions with experience tied to mining and metals equity research and advisory, including Deutsche Bank Securities and Bank of America/Merrill Lynch’s corporate affiliates. In a broader strategic shift, Almonty also relocated its corporate offices to Dillon, Montana, signaling a closer orientation to U.S. defense and industrial ecosystems.

The heart of the growth story remains Sangdong: the ramp from Phase 1 to Phase 2, backed by geopolitical demand for non-Chinese tungsten, and the emerging companion mineral play in molybdenum that could diversify cash flows. If shareholders approve the Phase 2 investment on June 9, the company would begin implementing a plan designed to capture a substantial share of global tungsten demand outside China, against a backdrop of policy-driven growth in Western defense and industrial procurement.

Investors will also weigh the calendar of catalysts beyond the vote. The US defensive mandate and EU reserve ambitions create a structural demand backdrop, while the APT price trajectory and the ramp-up economics at Sangdong will test whether Almonty can translate a single-strong-quarter surge into a durable multi-year growth story. With a new CFO and a U.S.-leaning corporate footprint, the company appears intent on turning Tungsten Moment into a longer-term strategic position—should the market grant approval for the Phase 2 expansion.