Thyssenkrupp Strives for China Trade Balm While Nucera’s Hydrogen Orders Quadruple

Thyssenkrupp stock surges 31.6% in 30 days as Nucera orders quadruple to €316M, but net loss of €11M and overbought RSI signal caution; CEO balances US restructuring with China diplomacy.

Thyssenkrupp is pulling off a delicate balancing act. Chief executive Miguel Ángel López Borrego is simultaneously shuttering a factory in the US Midwest, lobbying for smoother trade ties in Beijing, and riding a wave of orders at the group’s green hydrogen arm. The stock has responded with a 31.6% surge over the past 30 days, but the rally is flashing an overbought warning and the group remains in the red at the bottom line.

The strongest tailwind comes from Nucera, Thyssenkrupp’s water-electrolysis subsidiary. In the second quarter of the 2025/2026 financial year, order intake quadrupled to €316 million from €83 million a year earlier. A single large contract with Spanish energy group Moeve for a 300-megawatt plant in the Andalusian Green Hydrogen Valley – the biggest green hydrogen project in southern Europe – drove the jump. Nucera also won a design study for a 260-MW project in India. Its total order backlog now stands at €732 million.

On the restructuring front, López is tightening operations in North America. The production site in Terre Haute, Indiana, will be closed, affecting 230 employees. Chassis-component manufacturing will move to Thyssenkrupp Bilstein of America in Hamilton, Ohio. The wind-down is scheduled to be completed by spring 2027.

Diplomacy is another front. López joined Katherina Reiche, Germany’s economics minister, on a delegation that landed in Peking on May 27. Their mission: “a trusting and open exchange” with Chinese officials as trade imbalances and competition issues strain Europe-China relations. Thyssenkrupp generates roughly €2 billion of revenue in China – a market it has served since the 19th century through more than 20 operating companies. The delegation plans to visit Guangzhou to connect German firms with local players. The company emphasises the need to keep trade channels positive. About 5,000 German companies operate in China, which remains Germany’s largest trading partner for goods.

The operational turnaround is gaining traction, but the financial picture remains mixed. Adjusted EBIT leapt to €198 million in the second quarter from a paltry €19 million a year earlier, reflecting the group’s APEX efficiency programme. Yet Thyssenkrupp still posted a net loss of €11 million, and free cash flow before M&A stayed negative. The market is rewarding the progress but waiting for a sustainable cash-flow recovery in the second half.

Analysts are split on valuation. Deutsche Bank reaffirmed a “Buy” with a €14.50 target, Jefferies sees potential at €13.00, while JPMorgan stayed at “Neutral” with €11.80 – barely above the current level. Technically, the stock is running hot: the relative strength index sits at 68.5, territory often followed by profit-taking. Shares changed hands at €11.58 on Thursday, up 2.58% on the day, and have risen nearly 20% since the start of the year. But the price still trades about 12% below its 52-week high of €13.24, a sign that the rally has room to run – provided the cashflow turns and the China dialogue yields results.