T1 Energy Weathers Tariff Win and Short Attack in a Single Volatile Week

USITC keeps solar tariffs, yet T1 Energy shares fell 6.5%; short-seller attack reversed gains; analyst defense sparked short squeeze, stock surged 26-28%; financing remains key concern.

Investors in T1 Energy were subjected to whiplash last week, as a US trade ruling that should have been a clear positive failed to halt a sharp sell-off, while a separate short-seller attack triggered a dramatic intraday reversal. The stock closed Friday at €8.65, down 6.5% on the day, despite the US International Trade Commission confirming that anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese and Taiwanese solar modules would remain in place.

The USITC’s sunset review, announced on May 27, determined that removing the import barriers would risk continued or recurring material injury to domestic manufacturers. For T1 Energy, that preserves a crucial competitive edge against low-cost Asian rivals. The commission’s full public report is due by July 6. Yet the market reaction on Friday suggested that tariff protection alone is not enough to soothe deeper concerns about the company’s business model and financing.

Adding to the confusion, the same week saw a public clash between short sellers and a prominent analyst. Fuzzy Panda Research released a multi-part report accusing T1 Energy of violating rules on “Foreign Entities of Concern,” executing a sham transfer of intellectual property to its Singapore-based subsidiary Evervolt, and improperly claiming $41.4 million in tax credits in the first quarter.

Philip Shen of Roth Capital promptly pushed back, arguing that Fuzzy Panda had misread Treasury and IRS guidelines on effective control and tax credit recognition. He reaffirmed his Buy rating and $10 price target, naming T1 Energy a top pick for 2026. That defence triggered a classic short squeeze: with short interest exceeding 27% of the float, bears were forced to cover, and the stock surged 26% to 28% in the final days of May. By Thursday, the shares had closed at €9.25, just 2% below the 52-week high of €9.45, which was itself set on May 27.

The company’s fundamental numbers, meanwhile, continue to improve. First-quarter production reached 683.3 megawatts of modules, generating net revenue of $177.6 million. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $9.1 million. There was also a net profit from continuing operations of $3.9 million, though a net loss attributable to common shareholders of $21.4 million – or $0.08 per share – reflected preferred stock charges and other items. That loss widened from $17.1 million a year earlier, but on a per-share basis it narrowed from $0.11, thanks to a higher share count.

Operation of the G1 Dallas factory is shifting to fixed-margin and cost-plus contracts, and a polysilicon supply deal with Hemlock Semiconductor underscores the move toward a fully domestic supply chain. Meanwhile, construction of the G2_Austin facility is on schedule. The first phase, with 2.1 gigawatts of capacity, has secured long-lead equipment orders. Earthworks and infrastructure are finished, and concrete pouring began in April.

Financing remains the biggest question mark. At the end of March, T1 Energy held $123.7 million in cash, of which $46.4 million was unrestricted. A newly upsized convertible bond issue raised $160 million with a 4% coupon and 2031 maturity, generating net proceeds of $174.7 million. Management calls that a foundation for the first Austin phase, but continues to hunt for a “comprehensive financing solution” with a significant debt component. For now, the factory build-out and the company’s liquidity needs are tightly linked.

The stock’s technical picture reflects the recent chaos. During Friday’s session it traded between €10.06 and €11.09 on volume of 10.4 million shares, and the annualized 30-day volatility stands at 145.6%. Over the past month the shares have gained 106%, and over the past week 26%. The 52-week low of €3.36 was set barely two months ago. The 50-day moving average is €5.23 and the 200-day average €5.02, while the RSI of 56 still leaves room for further upward movement – if fundamentals can keep pace with the technical momentum.