T1 Energy’s Texas Expansion Gains Steam as Convertible Bond Raises $174.7 Million, but Investor Shifts Raise Questions

U.S. solar module maker T1 Energy posts record Q1 output and revenue, secures convertible notes for new G2 cell factory, and sees stock surge 828% in 12 months.

T1 Energy is ramping up production faster than it can sign customers. The U.S. solar module maker’s G1 facility in Dallas churned out 683.3 megawatts of modules in the first quarter, and by April the plant was running at an annualized rate of 3.4 gigawatts. Management has guided full-year output between 3.1 and 4.2 GW from a facility that can ultimately handle 5 GW. Demand is so strong that customer inquiries for 2027 and 2028 already exceed 100% of the combined expected capacity of both its existing and upcoming factories. For the remainder of 2026, fixed contracts covering 3 GW are already secured.

That operational momentum translated into a bumper first quarter. T1 Energy posted revenue of 160.2 million euros — or 177.6 million dollars — smashing the market forecast of just 95.5 million dollars. Continuing operations swung to an operating profit of 3.9 million dollars from a loss of 6.3 million a year earlier, while adjusted EBITDA hit a record 9.1 million dollars. The improvement was driven by higher output at the Dallas plant and more favourable fixed-margin supply contracts. The group’s total net loss of 21.4 million dollars stemmed largely from discontinued battery activities, compared with a net loss of 18.4 million euros reported in the primary financial statement.

Building the next leg of growth requires capital. T1 Energy placed convertible notes worth 174.7 million dollars in April, earmarked for the first phase of its new G2 solar cell factory in Austin. First production of TOPCon cells is on track for the fourth quarter of 2026, with an initial capacity of 2.1 GW. The company still needs roughly 225 million dollars for the remaining investment and is pursuing financing with a significant debt component. Meanwhile, the board has proposed doubling the number of authorised common shares to 1 billion from 500 million — a move that would give management more flexibility for future capital measures. The proposal goes to a vote at the 2026 annual general meeting. In a separate filing on 28 May, T1 Energy also flagged the possible sale of over 261,000 shares tied to option programmes granted in five tranches between July 2021 and March 2024.

The shareholder base is shifting in noticeable ways. Trina Solar (Switzerland) AG, a long-time strategic investor, sold 22.5 million shares in two blocks on 21 and 22 May at prices ranging from 6.98 to 8.50 euros. After the sales, Trina retains 11% of the company, or roughly 30.65 million shares. On the other side, hedge fund Situational Awareness LP invested 39.7 million euros to build a 3.6% stake. Retail sentiment, according to sentiment indicators, remains extremely bullish.

The stock has been on a tear — May was the strongest month in the company’s history with a 128% gain, pushing the twelve-month advance to 828%. Yet the shares slipped about 2% in pre-market trading to 9.45 euros after the dilution news emerged, and by Thursday they were trading at roughly 9.30 euros, still near a one-year high but showing signs of fatigue. The relative strength index stands at 56, indicating a neutral reading after the sharp run-up. Analysts are split. Roth Capital maintains a “buy” rating with a target of 9.02 euros, arguing the pullback is a buying opportunity. Fuzzy Panda Research, however, has raised concerns about compliance and accounting practices.

Looking further ahead, long-term projections compiled by individual analysts see T1 Energy generating 1.53 billion euros in revenue and 155.8 million euros in profit by 2029. Whether that trajectory materialises depends not only on execution in Texas but also on the outcome of the shareholder vote on the share count. The board’s proposal remains just that — a proposal. How much dilution potential ultimately hangs over the stock will be decided when investors cast their ballots next year.