SpaceX's Market Debut Pushes Scottish Mortgage Past Its Own Private-Equity Guardrails

SpaceX's Nasdaq debut gave Scottish Mortgage a 20x return but pushed unlisted holdings to 41.4%, breaching the 30% cap. Shareholders vote on raising limit as Anthropic IPO looms.

The long-awaited Nasdaq listing of SpaceX on 12 June has reshaped Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust in ways both rewarding and uncomfortable. Elon Musk’s rocket builder priced 556 million shares at $135 apiece and quickly climbed to around $161 on its first day, vaulting past a $2 trillion market capitalisation and overtaking Tesla. For Scottish Mortgage, whose early bet of roughly $200 million from late 2018 is now worth more than $4 billion — a near twentyfold return — the windfall has turbocharged the portfolio but also blown through the trust’s self-imposed limit on unlisted holdings.

Spacex alone now accounts for about 21% of Scottish Mortgage’s assets. Combined with other private stakes, the unlisted portion has swelled to 41.4%, up from 27.5% a year ago. The trust’s stated ceiling is 30%, a level that has been breached and now forces a reckoning. On 2 July, shareholders gathering in Edinburgh will vote on a proposal to raise the limit by £250 million on an annually renewable basis. If they reject it, management may be forced to sell down holdings — potentially in names the trust has been nursing towards public markets, such as ByteDance, Databricks and Stripe.

Anthropic Looms as the Next Catalyst

The pipeline of upcoming IPOs keeps the pressure on. Anthropic, the developer of the Claude AI assistant, confidentially filed a prospectus with the SEC on 1 June. A recent funding round valued the company at roughly $965 billion, and its annualised revenue has hit $47 billion. Scottish Mortgage carries its Anthropic stake in the books at about £400 million, or 2.6% of the portfolio. Analysts expect a formal listing from October 2026. If that debut goes well, the book value will be reset — likely triggering a further revaluation of the trust’s private asset base.

Buybacks Tighten as Dividend Streak Endures

While waiting for those payoffs, the trust has been aggressively buying back its own shares. On 16 June alone it repurchased 2.325 million shares at an average price of 1,486.19 pence, double the previous day’s volume. For the full financial year through March 2026, Scottish Mortgage bought back roughly 122.9 million shares at a total cost of £1.31 billion. Going forward, the buyback programme will only operate when the stock trades below net asset value.

The dividend was raised by 4.3% to 4.57 pence per share, extending the growth streak to 43 years. Yet the total payout of £49.6 million exceeded net profit of £25.6 million, a reminder of the cash demands on a portfolio heavy in unlisted assets.

Macro Headwinds Test the Growth Thesis

The tailwinds from SpaceX and Anthropic are being met by stiff macroeconomic headwinds. A strong US jobs report has pushed the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December 2026 above 80%. Growth-oriented portfolios are feeling the pinch. According to a Bain analysis, software valuations have been declining and the volume of technology deals slumped 70% between the fourth quarter of 2025 and early 2026.

Despite that, Scottish Mortgage’s longer-term numbers remain robust. Over the financial year to March 2026, the net asset value delivered a total return of 27.4%, comfortably ahead of the FTSE All-World index’s 18.0%. Over a decade, the NAV total return stands at 435% versus the benchmark’s 234%. The share price, meanwhile, has gained 21.7% year-to-date, though it closed recently at €16.91 — 13% below its May high.

Institutional confidence is visible: Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management crossed the 3% ownership threshold in early June, now holding around 33.6 million shares.

The July Vote as a Strategic Crossroads

The AGM vote is no routine formality. If shareholders refuse to lift the private-asset ceiling, Scottish Mortgage’s managers may be forced to exit some of their most promising unlisted positions — just as Anthropic edges toward a public listing. The outcome will determine whether the trust can continue to ride the wave of its big bets or must trim its sails before the next wave arrives.