Siemens Energy Charts Post-2030 Profitability Path While Record Orders and Gamesa’s Fate Dominate the Near Term

Siemens Energy's backlog hits €154B, orders surge 30%; Deutsche Bank sees 18-20% margin by 2030. Raised guidance hinges on Gamesa's breakeven, while stock gains 41% YTD.

Siemens Energy’s order book is ballooning at a record pace, but the company is also selling investors a story that extends well beyond the current strategy cycle. Deutsche Bank has zeroed in on that longer-term vision, flagging a potential operating margin of 18–20% by 2030 driven by the service and spare-parts business. That projection gives the equity a dual narrative: immediate commercial momentum and a structural earnings lift from the aftermarket.

The near-term numbers are already eye-catching. In the most recent quarter, comparable order intake surged nearly 30% to €17.7 billion — a new high — while the total backlog swelled to €154 billion. The United States was the main engine, with orders more than doubling year-on-year. Grid Technologies remains the most profitable division, churning out margins above 17%, and management sees further upside as electrification and digitalisation keep global power demand climbing.

Those strong results prompted Siemens Energy to raise its full-year guidance. Comparable revenue growth is now expected to hit 14–16%, up from the earlier 11–13% range, while the underlying profit margin should land between 10% and 12%. The projected free cash flow before taxes has been doubled to around €8 billion. Yet each of these upgrades comes with a clear condition: Siemens Gamesa, the wind-power subsidiary, must reach breakeven by the end of the fiscal year.

Gamesa narrowed its quarterly loss from €249 million to €44 million and improved its margin from minus 9.2% to minus 1.7%. The offshore wind unit is expected to deliver the turnaround in the second half. That makes the division both the biggest risk and the most important catalyst for the group. Activist investor Ananym Capital is pressing for a spin-off, arguing that Gamesa’s persistent losses drag down the valuation of the thriving core business. Whether that push gains traction depends entirely on how convincing the wind division’s rebound looks when third-quarter results are published on 5 August.

Analysts have reacted by lifting their price targets. Jefferies raised its target to €215 from €164, keeping a “Buy” rating, while JPMorgan went to €225 with an “Overweight” stance. Deutsche Bank’s Gael de-Bray maintains a €200 target and a buy recommendation. Out of 25 analyst ratings, 19 are buys, and the consensus target sits at €169.

The stock itself has had a powerful run. It changed hands at €173.88 on Friday, down 0.92% on the day, but still up more than 41% year to date. The technical picture supports the trend: the share price stands 5.4% above its 50-day moving average and 32.3% above the 200-day line, while the relative strength index of 53.5 suggests no overheating. Additional support could come from capital returns — the market expects Siemens Energy to expand its existing buyback programme in November 2026, having already retired a substantial number of shares since the programme began in March.

Not everything is plain sailing. The wind segment faces headwinds beyond Gamesa’s financials. At a recent energy minister conference on Norderney, warnings emerged that BP and TotalEnergies might exit German offshore wind projects, underscoring the fragile policy environment for large wind farms. Siemens Energy’s grid and service businesses help offset those risks, but the contrast between the booming order books in transmission and the persistent struggles in wind is a daily reminder of the company’s split personality.

For now, the dominant narrative is one of record demand and rising profitability — provided the wind subsidiary finally delivers. The 5 August earnings release will show whether Gamesa has truly turned the corner and whether the group’s upgraded targets rest on solid ground.