SAP’s Two-Front Gamble: Legal Settlement Talks and AI Rejig as Stock Struggles

SAP confronts a €3.4B EU antitrust probe and a leadership reshuffle to prioritize AI, as its stock plunges 30% in 2025. The company aims to integrate 200+ AI agents by Q3 2026.

SAP is waging twin battles — one in Brussels against a potential €3.4 billion antitrust fine, the other inside its own product lines as it races to embed artificial intelligence into its software. Both efforts carry high stakes for a stock that has lost nearly a third of its value this year and now trades near its lowest point in 12 months.

The European Commission is weighing concessions offered by the German software giant to resolve an investigation into the maintenance services market. Regulators suspect SAP of impeding competition by locking customers into proprietary support contracts. In response, the company has pledged to give clients more freedom in choosing third-party maintenance providers and to relax licensing terms. The EU’s current market test — during which rivals can raise objections — will determine whether the case closes without financial penalties. If no significant pushback emerges, the probe could end cleanly.

On the other side of the Atlantic, a separate legal headache is building. US-based process-mining rival Celonis persuaded a federal court to expand its lawsuit against SAP in late June, adding allegations of trade secret theft. The trial is scheduled to begin on December 7, 2026. Celonis claims SAP has been blocking access to customer data, a charge that could further complicate the company’s legal calendar.

While navigating these disputes, SAP is executing a sweeping reorganisation of its leadership. Chief executive Christian Klein took direct control of product development on July 1, signalling that AI is now the top priority. He has created two new power centres: Philipp Herzig will lead the newly formed business AI platform, while Manoj Swaminathan takes charge of the autonomous suite covering finance, human resources and other core functions. Both report directly to Klein. The reshuffle has cost two executives their roles — Muhammad Alam, formerly head of product development, will leave the company in spring 2027, and Michael Ameling is exiting immediately.

Klein’s ambition is to fashion a largely self-running enterprise. By the third quarter of 2026, SAP aims to integrate more than 200 AI agents into its own business processes, with the ultimate goal of replacing traditional coding with autonomous software. To get there without triggering a fresh wave of layoffs, the company is retraining employees to become AI managers. That strategy follows an earlier restructuring in which SAP cut roughly ten thousand positions while hiring thousands of technical specialists.

The broader market mood has brightened for the sector. Investment bank Guggenheim upgraded US rivals Salesforce and ServiceNow to “buy”, arguing that fears of AI-driven contract cancellations are overblown. SAP shares closed at €140.88 on July 1, a modest gain that reflected the tailwind. However, the stock has since slipped to €140.54 and remains deep in the red for 2025 — down around 30% from the opening price and a far cry from last summer’s record high of €266.00. The annualised 30-day volatility has surged above 45%, underscoring investor anxiety.

Management is now in a quiet period that bars any commentary on revenue or margins until the next quarterly report on July 23. That day will offer fresh data on cloud subscription growth and operating margin trajectory. Meanwhile, SAP has also installed a new regional chief for Asia-Pacific, Verena Siow, who will drive cloud expansion from Singapore. The industry expects a measurable stabilisation of growth by the end of 2026, a timeline that puts pressure on Klein to ensure the 200 AI agents are fully operational by the third quarter.