Nvidia Rides Quantum Bet Into a Fragile Technical Setup as Macro Risks Loom

Nvidia stock falls 7% weekly, testing key support near €168.66 amid strong earnings and quantum tech adoption, but faces macro risks and high expectations.

Nvidia’s stock is locked in a tug-of-war between near-term headwinds and a long-term technological offensive. Shares closed last week at €168.80 on Xetra, down more than 7% over five sessions and roughly 17% below the all-time high reached in May. While the company pushes deeper into quantum computing infrastructure with its NVQLink technology, the equity faces a more immediate challenge: a market that has already priced in perfection.

The sharp weekly decline has dragged the stock decisively below the 50-day moving average, turning that level into resistance at roughly €181. At the same time, the close on Friday parked Nvidia exactly on the 100-day line, which sits at €168.66. That technical cushion will be tested at Monday’s open. A break below would open the door to the 200-day moving average at €163.66, a level that optimists consider the most important support in the current landscape.

Yet beneath the price action, Nvidia is quietly building what could become a new moat. Its NVQLink technology connects quantum processors directly to Nvidia’s hardware, enabling hybrid real-time computing. Major research institutions such as MIT and the Los Alamos National Laboratory have adopted the system, and partner Quandela reported latency falling from 5,000 milliseconds to about 30 milliseconds. Europe is also doubling down, planning dozens of new supercomputers on this architecture.

The quantum push comes as the core business continues to fire on all cylinders. Revenue in the latest quarter surged 85% to $81.6 billion, with the data-centre segment growing even faster. Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish: Bank of America sets a target of $350, Morgan Stanley $288, Goldman Sachs $285, and both JPMorgan and UBS pitch $280. Management itself projects combined revenue of $1 trillion for fiscal 2026 and 2027, driven entirely by the Blackwell and Vera Rubin chip generations.

So why is the stock falling? The paradox is one of expectations. Nvidia now delivers such enormous numbers that it can barely outrun the consensus. The post-earnings selloff in May, after data-centre revenue nearly doubled, illustrates the trap. The annualised 30-day volatility is nearly 38%, meaning macro catalysts carry outsized weight. This week brings the June US jobs report, expected to show 172,000 new payrolls, and a speech by Fed chair Warsh in Portugal. A hotter-than-forecast jobs number would rekindle rate fears, hitting richly valued tech names hardest — and Nvidia, despite its correction, still qualifies.

Competitive pressure is also building. AMD and Intel are pushing alternative architectures, while Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft develop their own chips as cheaper substitutes. Separately, Nvidia has resumed sales of the H200 chip into China. Although the most advanced architectures remain barred, the H200 is powerful enough to train cutting-edge AI models, as demonstrated by Chinese startup DeepSeek’s benchmark results.

The technical picture offers a faint glimmer of hope. The relative strength index stands at 38.2, approaching but not yet crossing into oversold territory — a zone that has historically attracted buyers. With the 200-day line just 3% below the current price, the coming days will test whether the story of Nvidia in 2026 is about a remarkable company whose stock has simply run too far ahead, or one that is about to break down.