Novo Nordisk Scores Double Win: Fat-Loss Data Impress as Oral Wegovy Sales Double Expectations

Novo Nordisk unveils STEP UP trial data showing 84% fat loss and 27.7% weight reduction in early responders; oral Wegovy sales nearly double forecasts, boosting stock 31% from March low.

The battle for the obesity market is increasingly fought on two fronts: clinical nuance and commercial rollout. For Novo Nordisk, both are aligning. At the European Congress on Obesity in Istanbul, the Danish drugmaker unveiled detailed body-composition data from its STEP UP trial, while the blockbuster oral version of Wegovy is already trouncing revenue forecasts. Taken together, the signals suggest a company regaining its footing after a rocky start to the year.

The STEP UP study, which tracked more than 1,400 adults with obesity over 72 weeks, focused on a higher 7.2-milligram dose of semaglutide. Magnetic resonance imaging scans showed that 84% of lost weight came from fat mass, while only 10% was muscle. Visceral belly fat — the metabolically harmful kind — dropped by more than 30%. Crucially, participants maintained their physical strength as measured by the 30-second chair-stand test, a functional metric that addresses mounting concern over muscle loss during GLP-1 therapy.

A subanalysis of the high-dose cohort revealed even sharper weight-loss numbers. Among patients who shed at least 15% of their body weight in the first 24 weeks, average total reduction reached 27.7% by week 72. Across the entire group, the figure stood at nearly 21%, comfortably above the roughly 17% achieved with the standard 2.4-milligram dose. Novo Nordisk was careful to note that the 27.7% figure applies only to early responders, not the full study population, meaning a direct comparison with rival Eli Lilly's Zepbound is not straightforward.

Beyond weight loss, the company presented additional health benefits. In women, the magnitude of weight reduction was similar before, during and after menopause, strengthening Wegovy's case as a metabolic therapy with broad applicability. Migraine risk fell by 42 to 45% after an initial treatment phase, while the risk of depression decreased by 25% compared with menopausal hormone therapy alone. These are ancillary signals, but they help differentiate the drug in a crowded field.

If the Istanbul data address the quality of weight loss, the oral Wegovy pill addresses the quantity of revenue — and it is delivering in spades. In its first full quarter on the US market, the tablet generated around 2.26 billion Danish kroner, nearly double analyst expectations. All three major US pharmacy-benefit managers have added it to their standard formularies at parity with the injectable version. Citi has raised its price target to 290 kroner, though it maintains a neutral rating, forecasting 2026 oral-pill sales of $2.7 billion — well above the market consensus of $1.7 billion. SB1 Markets is more bullish, lifting its target to 350 kroner with a buy recommendation.

The stock has responded in kind. Having sunk to a year-to-date low in March, the shares have recovered roughly 31% from that trough. The closing price on Tuesday stood at €40.05 in Frankfurt. Still, the year's scoreboard shows a 10.35% decline, underscoring that the rebound is a repair job rather than a new high. Over the past month, the gain amounts to a more respectable 24.41%.

Fundamentals explain the cautious optimism. In the latest quarter, Novo Nordisk posted net profit of 48.6 billion kroner, while adjusted revenue fell 4% on a currency-adjusted basis to 70.1 billion kroner. The weakness was US-centric: outside the United States, sales grew 6%, propelled by strong obesity-product uptake. Management has lifted the full-year outlook, citing momentum from the oral Wegovy launch and ongoing capacity expansion, including a multi-year buildout of oral GLP-1 production in Athlone, Ireland.

Alongside Wegovy, the Istanbul congress showcased renewed data for the combination therapy CagriSema under the REDEFINE-1 programme, covering body composition, muscle strength and cardiovascular risk. CagriSema suffered a setback earlier this year when it lagged Lilly's Zepbound in a head-to-head trial, but the US Food and Drug Administration is reviewing a marketing application, with a decision expected in 2026.

The conference runs through May 15. On the final day, researchers are scheduled to present a direct comparison of oral semaglutide with Lilly's oral candidate orforglipron — a session likely to fuel fresh debate over market share. Meanwhile, European approval for the Wegovy pill is anticipated before year-end, with initial ex-US launches slated for the second half of 2026. Novo Nordisk's next scheduled financial checkpoint is the half-year report on August 5, by which time the Istanbul data will have settled and the tablet's international roll-out will be looming large.