Novo Nordisk’s Oral Wegovy Pill Exceeds Forecasts as High-Dose Injection Data Shine at Istanbul Congress

Oral Wegovy sales nearly double forecasts at 2.26B DKK; high-dose semaglutide achieves 21% average weight loss, boosting investor sentiment.

Novo Nordisk landed a one-two punch at the European Congress on Obesity in Istanbul this week, combining blockbuster sales from its oral Wegovy pill with fresh clinical evidence that a higher dose of the injectable version can drive deeper weight loss. The dual narrative has re-energised investors, with the stock clawing back roughly 31 percent from its March trough and closing at 40.05 euros on Tuesday — a 24.41 percent gain over the past month.

The real catalyst, however, came from the commercial front. The oral formulation of Wegovy, launched in the US earlier this year, generated roughly 2.26 billion Danish kroner in its first full quarter on the market — nearly double what analysts had pencilled in. All three major US pharmacy benefit managers have now listed the pill on par with the injection, and Citi raised its price target to 290 Danish kroner while maintaining a neutral stance. SB1 Markets went further, lifting its target to 350 kroner with a buy rating. The bank estimates full-year 2026 sales for the pill at $2.7 billion, well above the consensus of $1.7 billion.

The clinical programme offered no less firepower. Data from the STEP-UP study showed that adults with obesity who received the high-dose 7.2-milligram version of semaglutide achieved an average weight reduction of 21 percent over 72 weeks — a notable step up from the roughly 17 percent seen with the standard 2.4-milligram dose. Among patients who shed at least 15 percent of their body weight in the first 24 weeks — so-called early responders — the average loss hit 27.7 percent by the study’s end. Novo stressed that the latter figure applies only to a subset of participants, making a direct head-to-head comparison with rival treatments impossible. Still, the results reinforce the drug’s metabolic credentials. Subanalyses also showed reductions in waist circumference and improvements in body composition, with the vast majority of lost weight coming from fat rather than muscle mass.

Women across different phases of menopause registered robust outcomes. Premenopausal participants averaged 22.6 percent weight loss, while peri- and postmenopausal women each shed roughly a fifth of their body weight. Novo reported ancillary health benefits: among perimenopausal women, the risk of heart attack, stroke or cardiovascular death fell 42 percent relative to placebo, and migraine risk dropped 42–45 percent. Depression risk was 25 percent lower compared with menopausal hormone therapy alone. Older adults also responded well — patients aged 65 and above lost an average of 15.4 percent of their body weight by week 68, versus 5.1 percent in the placebo group.

The pipeline isn’t limited to semaglutide. Novo also presented new data from the REDEFINE-1 programme for its combination therapy CagriSema, which suffered a major setback earlier this year when it underperformed Eli Lilly’s Zepbound in a direct comparison. The latest findings highlighted effects on body composition, muscle strength and cardiovascular risk. The FDA is currently reviewing a marketing application, with a decision expected in 2026.

Wegovy’s injectable version continues to dominate US new prescriptions, holding roughly 65 percent of the market. But competition is mounting: Eli Lilly launched its own oral pill, Foundayo, in April, and a head-to-head data comparison between oral semaglutide and Lilly’s orforglipron is scheduled for Friday at the Istanbul congress — a session that could shift market-share expectations further. The European approval of the oral Wegovy pill is anticipated before year-end, with initial launches outside the US pencilled in for the second half of 2026.

Operationally, the picture remains mixed. First-quarter 2026 adjusted revenues fell 4 percent on a currency-adjusted basis to 70.1 billion kroner, hit by pricing pressure. Reported revenue reached 96.8 billion kroner, boosted by a one-time release of provisions. Novo has raised its full-year outlook, contingent on the international roll-out of the oral pill and volume growth in the obesity business. A share buyback programme of up to 15 billion kroner over 12 months and a dividend yield of 3.91 percent provide additional support. The next major catalyst will come on August 5, when Novo reports half-year results.