Nokia’s Insider Buys Point to Confidence in AI Orders, but Delivery Timelines Loom Large

Nokia manager buys 70K shares at $15+ before pullback; stock surged 129% in 2026 on AI demand, but valuation concerns and supply chain risks loom.

Senior Nokia manager Konstanty Owczarek loaded up on nearly 70,000 American depositary shares in the days before the stock’s recent pullback, spending roughly €1.1 million at an average price above $15. The purchases came on May 22 and May 26 — the latter just as the stock was touching its 52-week high of €14.14 in Helsinki. Yet the insider buying did little to stem the sell-off that followed.

The telecom equipment maker has been one of Europe’s hottest stocks this year, more than tripling from its August 2025 low of €3.49. Since the start of 2026, the gain stands at roughly 129%. The catalyst has been unmistakable: a surge in orders from hyperscale cloud providers and AI data centre operators, which has transformed Nokia’s optical and IP networking business into a growth story again.

First-quarter figures laid out the narrative in sharp relief. Revenue in the Network Infrastructure segment rose 6% year-on-year, while Optical Networks jumped 20%. More tellingly, sales to AI and cloud customers soared 49%, and orders from that cohort hit €1 billion. Comparable operating profit climbed 54% to €281 million, and the operating margin improved from 4.2% to 6.2%. Free cash flow stood at €0.6 billion, with net cash of €3.8 billion.

Management has raised its growth forecast for Network Infrastructure to 12–14% for the full year, and expects IP Networks and Optical Networks combined to expand by 18–20%. The overall comparable operating profit target remains unchanged at €2.0–€2.5 billion.

But the market’s enthusiasm has priced in a good chunk of that optimism already. The stock hit its 52-week high of €14.14 on May 26 before reversing course. In Helsinki, the shares closed Friday at €12.73 — a weekly decline of 4.25% — and have continued to slide, with a further 3% drop taking them to €12.65. The retreat followed a single-day surge of nearly 10% on May 23, when Nokia accounted for roughly €240 million in turnover and helped push the OMX Helsinki PI index above 14,000 for the first time since December 2000.

The sell-off reflects a growing debate about valuation. Morgan Stanley raised its price target to €14 from €11, calling Nokia its preferred European play on AI data-centre infrastructure. SEB upgraded the stock to Buy. Yet the consensus target across 23 analysts stands at just €9.375 — well below the current price. The gap highlights how rapidly the old valuation frameworks have been overtaken by events, and how sensitive the stock has become to execution risk.

Not all of Nokia’s business lines are firing. Fixed Networks dropped 13% in the first quarter, a reminder that the company is still managing legacy telecom exposure. More critically, Nokia has flagged lengthening lead times in the AI supply chain. New optical products are not expected to enter the sampling phase until mid-2027, with volume production slated for the second half of that year. That shifts the focus from pure demand growth to the speed at which Nokia can convert its order book into billable revenue.

The next major test comes on July 23, 2026, when Nokia reports second-quarter and first-half results. By then, investors will want to see whether the €1 billion in AI-related orders translates into accelerating revenue for Optical and IP Networks — and whether margins can hold up as the company scales production. Until that data point arrives, the stock is likely to oscillate between believers betting on the AI supercycle and sceptics questioning whether the price already reflects too much, too soon.