Nel ASA’s Cash-Fueled Pivot: New Electrolyzer Costs Slashed as €135 Million EU Backing Buys Time for Orders

Nel ASA's stock has doubled since March, driven by a new low-cost electrolyzer and €135M EU funding, but Q2 results on July 15 will test if the rally is justified.

The rally in Nel ASA’s stock has been nothing short of spectacular – nearly doubling since early March – but the real story lies in the widening chasm between that momentum and the underlying financials. With the shares hovering just a whisker below their 52-week high, the question is whether a technological leap and a fattening cash pile can close that gap.

A cost breakthrough shakes up the hydrogen equation

What has kept the bullish narrative alive is the launch of Nel’s next-generation pressure alkaline electrolyzer platform in early May. The system delivers green hydrogen at 30 bar output pressure and aims to slash the total cost for a 25-megawatt installation to under $1,450 per kilowatt. That marks a dramatic reduction from the industry norm of $3,000 per kilowatt or more for comparable projects. If Nel can validate those economics in commercial operation, the company’s competitive position in the fast-growing green hydrogen market could be transformed overnight.

A war chest that buys patience

Even as the income statement remains deep in the red – first-quarter revenue slipped 5% year on year to 148 million Norwegian kroner, and EBITDA improved only marginally to a negative 100 million kroner – the balance sheet offers breathing room. Nel closed March with roughly 1.4 billion kroner in cash. That liquidity is about to get a sizable boost from Brussels: the first tranche of around €11 million from the EU Innovation Fund is expected in the current quarter, with the full allocation of up to €135 million tied to scaling the new electrolyzer production.

Technical pause after a blistering run

On the charts, the stock has been treading water near €0.35 since hitting its 52-week high of €0.36 on May 25. That level has acted as short-term resistance, but the consolidation is typical after a rally that has lifted the shares more than 80% year to date. The relative strength index sits at roughly 50 – neutral territory – suggesting the pause is a digestion phase rather than a reversal. Yet the distance to the 200-day moving average of €0.21 is still a stretched 66%, a reminder that the stock is technically overextended after a nearly three-month sprint from its March low of €0.18.

Samsung’s board seat adds strategic weight

Another pillar underpinning sentiment is the involvement of Korean conglomerate Samsung E&A, which holds a 9.1% stake and gained a board seat in May 2025. That alliance runs deeper than a passive investment; it ties Nel’s commercial destiny to one of the largest engineering and construction players in Asia, potentially accelerating the conversion of the project pipeline into signed orders.

The July reckoning

At this stage, the stock is pricing in future margins that have yet to materialise. The new electrolyzer platform is already on the market, but the real test will come when Nel reports second-quarter results on July 15, 2026. Investors will be watching for signs that the company’s active pipeline is hardening into firm contracts – and whether the cost-cutting strategy can finally pull the operating numbers out of negative territory. Until then, the rally remains a high-conviction bet on technology and timing, backed by enough cash and EU support to give that bet room to play out.