Nel ASA's 58% Rally Belies a 73% Collapse in Order Intake

Nel ASA stock surges 58% as order backlog shrinks 24% and new orders plunge 73%. Cost cuts and new electrolyser platform aim to revive growth, but analysts remain bearish.

The Norwegian hydrogen specialist Nel ASA finds itself in a curious spot: its stock has surged 58% since the start of 2026 and climbed nearly 40% over the past 30 days alone, yet the company’s order book is shrinking at an alarming rate. The shares now trade around €0.30, well above their 200-day moving average, but the divergence between market euphoria and commercial reality is widening by the week.

New orders during the first quarter came in at just 85 million Norwegian kroner — a 73% plunge from the same period last year. The order backlog fell 24% year-on-year to 1.113 billion kroner, underscoring a pipeline that is contracting despite the broader hydrogen sector banking on policy support and falling production costs. Revenue from customer contracts also slipped 5% to 148 million kroner, a modest decline that nevertheless leaves the growth trajectory looking fragile.

On the cost side, Nel is making headway. The EBITDA loss narrowed to 100 million kroner from 115 million kroner in the prior-year quarter, and the net loss also improved. Management credited better project execution and ongoing cost-cutting. The workforce has been slashed 19% from a year ago and 26% from its historic peak, while personnel expenses fell 21% in the quarter. Cash reserves stand at 1.443 billion kroner, enough to fund operations through the end of 2026, according to the CEO.

The company’s big bet on a new generation of electrolysers is meant to turn the tide. Early in May, Nel began commercial introduction of a pressurized alkaline electrolyser system at its automated facility in Herøya, Norway. The modular, standardized design targets installed costs of under $1,450 per kilowatt for a 25?megawatt plant — roughly half the typical $3,000/kW seen in many industrial projects today. Management claims the platform can slash capital expenditure by 40% to 60% compared with existing market solutions. If realized, that would be a powerful argument to revive stalled investment decisions.

“It’s been a quiet start to the year with subdued market demand,” CEO Håkon Volldal said, though he noted that negotiations are underway for large-scale projects in Europe and North America. A €11 million EU grant supporting the industrialization of the new platform is expected in the second quarter. Two smaller contracts — a $7 million order from US utility DCPUD for a facility in Washington state that will use surplus hydropower, and a multi?million?euro order for hydrogen refueling stations in Europe — are slated to begin in the first half of 2027.

Analysts remain decidedly unconvinced. Eleven of them rate the stock a sell, with a consensus price target of 2.12 Norwegian kroner — below the current Oslo listing. A second consensus estimate sits at 2.35 kroner. The market is ignoring those warnings, buoyed by broader sector enthusiasm after strong results from US peer Bloom Energy. But the next hard test comes on 15 July 2026, when Nel publishes half-year results. That date will reveal whether the new electrolyser platform is gaining commercial traction — and whether the order intake can finally break out of its deep trough.