Nel ASA: A 38% Rout Meets a Cost-Cutting Makeover as Investors Count Down to July 15

Nel ASA shares slide 38% in a month, yet hold a 10% YTD gain. CEO resignation, collapsing order intake, and key technical support at €0.21 define the outlook.

For all the damage inflicted on Nel ASA's share price over the past month — a slide of nearly 38% — the year-to-date column still shows a 10% gain. That paradox captures the whipsaw nature of a stock that has been trading on headlines and hope as much as hard numbers. At 0.21 euros, the shares are resting on the 200-day moving average, a technical lifeline that could determine whether the next leg is a bounce or a break toward the February low of 0.17 euros.

The Norwegian hydrogen specialist enters a decisive period with its corner office empty. Chief executive Håkon Volldal announced his resignation in mid-June and will remain in post for a six-month transition period while the board searches for a successor. Reports have linked the search to a candidate from packaging group Elopak, but no start date has been confirmed. The resulting vacuum is amplified by the so-called "silent period" ahead of the company's half-year results on July 15, when management is barred from communicating with investors. That communications blackout has only heightened anxiety among shareholders already nursing steep losses.

Technicians see little room for error. The relative strength index has fallen to between 34.6 and 36.6, flirting with oversold territory, and the 30-day annualised volatility has spiked above 72%. At the current price, Nel sits more than 42% below its 52-week high of 0.37 euros — a level reached as recently as late May. The 200-day line at 0.21 euros is now the key support; a break below that would open the path to the year's low of 0.17 euros. The market capitalisation stands at roughly 4.35 billion Norwegian kroner.

Fundamental headwinds explain much of the sell-off. Nel's order intake collapsed by 73% in the first quarter, a slump that has cast a long shadow over the second-quarter numbers due next week. Analysts expect revenue of around 191–192 million Norwegian kroner for the period, up from 174 million kroner a year earlier but still reflecting the broader project delays that have plagued the hydrogen sector. The net loss per share is seen narrowing to 0.053 kroner from 0.070 kroner in the first quarter.

The deterioration is not limited to the near term. For the full year 2026, consensus forecasts a loss of 0.24 kroner per share, while the revenue estimate has been slashed to 805 million kroner — a sharp drop from the 963 million kroner reported last year. Analysts attribute the downgrade to repeated delays in final investment decisions for large-scale hydrogen projects across the globe.

Not all news is negative. Nel has a powerful anchor shareholder in Samsung E&A, which holds 9.1% of the stock and remains firmly on board. The Korean conglomerate is also backing Nel's technological pivot: a new electrolyser platform designed to push production costs below $1,450 per kilowatt. Separately, a legal settlement with Iwatani delivered a $7.5 million cash payment, providing a rare positive surprise.

Yet the broader technical and fundamental picture leaves little margin for error. The July 15 half-year report will need to demonstrate tangible progress on cost efficiency and new order wins to arrest the current slide. If the 200-day moving average fails to hold, the stock will quickly find itself testing the February trough — and the faith of even the most patient hydrogen bulls.