Nebius Rewrites the Rules of AI Infrastructure: From Search Engine Relic to Nasdaq-100's Newest Power Player

Amsterdam-based Nebius rides AI hardware wave, landing $27B Meta deal and a Nasdaq-100 debut, with stock up 220% to €63B market cap.

The artificial intelligence landscape is pivoting hard. After a year obsessed with smarter and faster language models, the market's attention has swung to the physical backbone of the revolution: data centres, graphics cards, and the companies that stitch them together. No one embodies this shift more dramatically than Nebius, the Amsterdam-based firm that has reinvented itself from a former search engine operator into a specialised cloud provider for AI workloads. The stock has skyrocketed 220% since January, pushing its market capitalisation to €63.48 billion — a valuation that speaks less to hype and more to a wager on a new breed of utility supplier.

The Meta Pact That Shook the Cloud Oligopoly

Amazon, Microsoft, and Google have been pouring billions into custom silicon to reduce their reliance on third-party chips. Nvidia has responded by cultivating a network of independent allies, and Nebius sits at the centre of that strategy. The chip giant invested $2 billion for an 8.3% stake, securing Nebius preferential access to coveted graphics cards — the new global currency of compute. That advantage has already yielded jaw-dropping contracts. Meta signed a five-year deal worth $27 billion for exclusive computing capacity, while Microsoft booked infrastructure for $17.4 billion. The message is clear: the old cloud monopolies are being challenged by nimble, specialised players.

Building a Moat of Concrete and Cash

Translating those contracts into revenue requires a massive physical build-out. Nebius is spending up to $25 billion on infrastructure this year alone. In the UK, it is pouring £1.7 billion into new facilities; additional hyperscale data centres are under construction in Finland and France. The company also made a strategic push into the United States by acquiring Eigen AI for roughly $643 million, a mix of cash and shares. Eigen’s technology will allow Nebius customers to run open-source models like Llama and DeepSeek faster and cheaper, while the startup’s founders will establish a new research hub in the San Francisco Bay Area.

This hypergrowth phase burns cash — free cash flow remains deeply negative. Yet Nebius is sitting on a comfortable cushion from earlier asset sales, and management believes the investment will pay off. Revenue exploded 684% in the first quarter to $399 million, and the full-year target is as high as $3.4 billion. The challenge will be navigating the near-term margin squeeze: second-quarter profitability is expected to decline due to upfront costs, with a recovery pencilled in for the third quarter.

A Nasdaq-100 Debut and a Short Squeeze Drama

Monday marks a major milestone: Nebius officially joins the Nasdaq-100. Passive index funds are now forced to buy the stock, creating a powerful mechanical bid that has already fuelled the rally. The shares closed Friday at €245.20, having hit an all-time high of €260.75 on June 18. That record is within striking distance, but the 41% premium above the 50-day moving average has tempted some profit-taking.

The ride has been exceptionally volatile, with an annualised swing of 109%. Short sellers have piled in, pushing the short interest to a record 17.6%. That creates an explosive dynamic. If the stock breaks above its recent peak, the shorts could face a violent capitulation. The Nasdaq-100 inclusion will likely boost trading volumes, amplifying any directional move.

Insider Sales Signal Caution at the Top

Not everyone is holding with both hands. Nebius board chairman John Boynton recently sold shares worth nearly $1.5 million, though he still holds about 380,000 shares. Over the past twelve months, insiders have netted over $11 million from stock sales. Such disposals are routine after a monster run, but retail investors are watching closely for signs of waning conviction.

What Happens After the Index Rerating?

Once the passive buying from the Nasdaq-100 inclusion is complete, a key near-term catalyst disappears. If the stock fails to hold above its breakout level, analysts warn of a rapid pullback toward the 50-day line near €173. For now, the narrative remains compelling: Nebius has secured the partnerships, the infrastructure budget, and the index status to become a defining player in the AI supply chain. The next test is whether it can turn concrete and kilowatts into sustainable profits.