Fluence Energy Faces Cross-Currents: Customs Refund and Hyperscaler Momentum Offset by Share Overhang

Fluence Energy seeks $57M customs refund, secures hyperscaler deals for 12 GW pipeline, but faces stock pressure from a 20M share secondary sale.

Fluence Energy finds itself at an unusual crossroads. The energy storage specialist is chasing a $57 million customs refund, locking in domestic supply deals, and building a 12-gigawatt pipeline for AI data centres — yet its stock is under pressure from a wave of shares being sold by existing large holders.

The refund request, filed via U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s new CAPE portal under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, targets historical tariff payments and, if successful, would deliver a liquidity boost without diluting existing shareholders. The company carries roughly $402 million in total debt, making the potential cash inflow a welcome buffer. Management intends to use the funds to support free cash flow later this year, when working capital needs spike as deliveries accelerate.

Share Placement Creates Overhang

That fundamental progress is being overshadowed by a massive secondary sale. Mid-May saw 20 million common shares placed at $21.00 by a group of existing stockholders, with an option for the underwriting banks to purchase a further 3 million shares. Crucially, Fluence itself did not sell any equity and therefore receives no proceeds from the transaction. The market is still absorbing this additional supply.

The stock, which had already slipped to around €18.32 following the placement, slid further to €16.26 on the day the refund news broke — a decline of nearly 11% in the session. The relative strength index has dropped to 31.9, signalling an oversold condition. The 50-day moving average sits at €13.98, a level that if held could offer a technical springboard for a recovery.

Despite the recent pullback, the shares have still more than quadrupled over the past twelve months, rising over 340%. In the last 30 days alone the stock surged roughly 80%, a rally that likely encouraged the selling by early investors.

Hyperscaler Deals and a Record Backlog

Operationally, Fluence’s momentum remains strong. The company has secured master supply agreements with two unnamed hyperscalers, driven by its power-conditioning technology that can respond in under 100 milliseconds — a critical requirement for data centre backup power. The total pipeline identified for hyperscaler and data centre projects now stands at 12 GW.

The broader order book reflects this traction. Backlog hit a record $5.6 billion, supported by the two new framework agreements. Adjusted gross margin improved to 11.1% in the latest quarter. For fiscal 2026, management expects revenue between $3.2 billion and $3.6 billion, with annual recurring revenue of roughly $180 million. The EBITDA target of $40 million to $60 million will be a key metric for investor confidence.

Domestic Supply Chain Moves

To insulate margins from escalating trade friction, Fluence has been fortifying its U.S. supply chain. A multi-year agreement with Fixx Energy, which recently acquired a battery cell factory in Smyrna, Tennessee, ensures a domestic source of cells. Tariffs on lithium-ion batteries outside the electric-vehicle sector are set to rise further in 2026, making this move timely.

A second in-house cell supply deal for the next fiscal year is already in place. The company’s existing module plant in Utah can now source cells from Tennessee to qualify for the 10% domestic-content bonus under the Inflation Reduction Act.

Liquidity and Covenant Room

With total liquidity of around $900 million, including $387 million in cash, Fluence has funding to support its capital-intensive expansion. The company recently amended its credit agreement, pushing the first debt covenant test date to 1 January 2027. That provides operational breathing room while it ramps up deliveries to both hyperscalers and utility customers.

The picture is one of strong operational tailwinds colliding with capital-market headwinds. The refund application, the domestic sourcing deals, and the AI-driven pipeline all support the long-term story. But the share overhang from the placement, combined with a stretched balance sheet, will keep investors watching for the next catalyst — likely the EBITDA delivery in the quarters ahead.