Equinor Rides $91 Oil Forecast and Record Output as Analysts Split on Upside

Geopolitical tensions lift oil and gas prices, boosting Equinor's outlook. Q1 profit rises 18%, record output reached, dividend and $375M buyback approved. Analysts mixed amid high valuation.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have upended energy price expectations, handing Norwegian state-controlled Equinor a powerful tailwind. Analysts now see Brent crude averaging $91 a barrel in 2026, a dramatic revision from the earlier $67 estimate, and natural gas prices are also climbing. Norway has accordingly boosted its projected sector revenues by 30%, a shift that directly lifts the outlook for its largest energy producer.

Shareholders have given management a ringing endorsement. At the annual general meeting, every critical resolution failed, while the approved quarterly dividend of $0.39 per share was rubber-stamped. The ex-dividend date falls in May 2026, with payment due the same month. Alongside the payout, the board extended the buyback authorization through mid-2027, and the company has already launched the next tranche: a $375 million repurchase that began this week. The programme is underpinned by a solid first quarter, during which net profit climbed 18% to $3.1 billion. Although total revenue edged lower, adjusted operating earnings came in at nearly $10 billion, underscoring the strength of Equinor’s cash generation.

Operationally, the company notched a historic milestone in the North Sea. The Gullfaks field delivered its 5,000th cargo after 40 years of production, having pumped nearly double the volume originally estimated. Meanwhile, Equinor’s total first-quarter output hit a record 2.31 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, driven by new projects on the Norwegian continental shelf. The company also signed a two-year contract to supply bio-methanol to the maritime industry, part of a broader push to expand renewable energy capacity, which rose by nearly a third in the quarter.

The strong performance has attracted a mixed response from the analyst community. Arctic Securities upgraded the stock from “Hold” to “Buy” on Tuesday, setting a price target of 380 Norwegian kroner. Morgan Stanley, by contrast, trimmed its target slightly to 376 kroner while maintaining an “Equal-weight” rating. The divergence reflects a valuation that has become stretched: Equinor shares closed at €32.83, up 57% year-to-date, and now trade at a price-to-earnings ratio well above the five-year average.

Looking further ahead, Equinor is laying the groundwork for growth beyond the North Sea. The company has formally applied for permission to develop Bay du Nord, an oil project off Newfoundland and Labrador, which would be Canada’s first deepwater field. A final investment decision is expected in 2027. For now, the dual strategy of maximising fossil-fuel output while accelerating renewables is delivering solid returns for investors. The new buyback tranche and elevated profitability provide tangible support for the current valuation, even as the stock’s high multiple keeps the bulls and bears divided.