Copper Rally and Capacity Expansion Propel Aurubis to New Heights

Copper recycler Aurubis surges as copper tops $13,000/tonne and billion-euro projects boost earnings, but US tariff risk looms.

The price of copper pushing past the $13,000-per-tonne mark has turbocharged Aurubis, lifting the Hamburg-based copper recycler to within a whisker of its yearly high. The shares advanced 2.69% to €206.20 on Thursday, cementing Aurubis's position as one of the strongest performers in the MDAX. But beyond the immediate raw-material tailwind, the company is reaping the benefits of a multi-year investment cycle that is now delivering earnings.

Aurubis has raised its full-year profit guidance twice this fiscal year, a reflection of operational momentum that few European industrial peers can match. The operating EBT is now expected to land between €425 million and €525 million, up sharply from the initial range of €300 million to €400 million. The driving force: three billion-euro projects that are simultaneously entering the income phase. In Hamburg, the Complex Recycling Hamburg plant fired up its first smelt in March, boosting the company's annual refined copper capacity from around 220,000 tonnes to roughly 340,000 tonnes.

The strategic expansion extends beyond Germany. Aurubis's new facility in Olen, Belgium, and the successful ramp-up of its Richmond, USA, plant are both contributing. The US market entry, in particular, benefits from the Inflation Reduction Act and a broader push to reshore critical materials supply chains. The company's investment programme through 2027/28 focuses on complex recycling capacity, and once all projects are fully operational, they are expected to add roughly €260 million in annual EBITDA.

From a valuation standpoint, Aurubis trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of around 13.9 times trailing twelve-month earnings, a level many analysts consider reasonable given the growth profile. The market capitalisation stands at roughly €9.26 billion. Year-to-date, the stock has surged more than 62%, and over the past twelve months it has gained close to 160%. A modest dividend of €1.60 per share yields 0.8%.

Yet not all risks are priced in. The biggest external uncertainty comes from US trade policy. By the end of June, the US secretary of commerce is due to submit a report on the American copper market under Section 232, which could form the basis for import tariffs on refined copper. Such a move would directly affect Aurubis's exports. Furthermore, while copper supply constraints from Chile (lower ore grades and water scarcity) and supply-chain tensions via the Strait of Hormuz provide a supportive backdrop, any reversal in the commodity cycle could quickly sour sentiment.

Technically, the share is testing resistance near the €212 level. A clean break above that would open the door to new all-time highs. For now, the combination of a red-hot copper market, a fully deployed expansion programme, and an upwardly revised earnings outlook makes Aurubis a compelling story — albeit one that investors will want to keep a close eye on as the US trade deadline approaches.