BMW Sales Surge in Germany and US, But China Margin Warning Keeps Shares Near Lows

Despite record registrations in Germany and strong US sales, BMW's stock languishes near 52-week lows after a profit warning tied to weak China demand.

BMW is posting enviable sales numbers in its two largest Western markets, yet its stock continues to languish near 52-week lows. The disconnect between operational performance and market sentiment has rarely been wider, as a profit warning tied to China overshadows the strongest monthly registration data in years.

German registrations overtake Mercedes

June 2026 proved a standout month for BMW on home turf. The automaker logged 26,119 new registrations in Germany, a jump of 18.6% year-on-year. That comfortably outpaced Mercedes-Benz, which managed 23,728 units for a 5.9% gain, and Audi with 19,097 registrations and a 17.1% increase — the latter flattered by a weak comparison base. The Mini brand added 4,936 new cars, surging 59.7%. Across the entire market, electrified vehicles accounted for 28.4% of all registrations, a 78.2% increase from June 2025.

The strong showing reshuffled the half-year standings. BMW's first-half tally of 126,766 registrations (up 6.5%) pushed it ahead of Mercedes, whose 125,960 units represented a 0.8% decline. Mini's German total rose as well, though the brand saw a 6.0% contraction in the US over the same period.

America delivers broad-based growth

Across the Atlantic, the picture is similarly upbeat. Second-quarter US sales climbed 13.0% to 102,713 vehicles. The gains were evenly spread, with passenger cars rising 12.8% and SUVs advancing 13.2%, signaling healthy demand across the model lineup rather than a one-segment spike. Mini's US performance was less encouraging, with deliveries slipping 2.1% to 7,456 units in the quarter. For the BMW Group overall, US first-half sales crept up 3.9%.

China overhang caps the stock

Despite the encouraging traffic on both sides of the Atlantic, investors remain fixated on China. BMW was forced to slash its outlook in mid-June, guiding for an automotive EBIT margin of just 1% to 3% for the full year, with weak demand in the People's Republic the primary culprit. That warning has kept a lid on any rallies triggered by the German and US data.

The share price closed Friday at €60.66, edging up 0.26% on the day and notching a 2.92% weekly gain — a modest respite after weeks of heavy selling. Year-to-date, the stock has shed 36.76%, and it is off 22.55% over the past 12 months. At just 6.31% above its 52-week low of €57.06 set on June 30, the recovery is fragile at best.

Technical indicators underline the stress. The 50-day moving average of €71.09 sits 14.67% above the current price, while the 200-day average of €82.56 is 26.53% higher. The relative strength index of 35.4 points to oversold conditions, which sometimes precede counter-moves, but the chart still shows a clear downtrend. The 52-week high of €97.90 from last December is now 38.04% out of reach.

Capital returns offer some support

Management has reaffirmed its commitment to shareholders despite the operational headwinds. Free cash flow in the automotive division is still expected to exceed €2.5 billion, and a share buyback programme continues to run. A new €625 million tranche started on July 1, providing structural demand for the stock. With a dividend yield of roughly 5.4%, the equity is drawing the interest of value-focused investors.

The next catalyst on the calendar is an analyst call scheduled for Friday, July 10, where executives are expected to provide more detail on second-quarter trends and inventory management in China. The official half-year report follows on July 30. Until then, any positive news from the West will likely be weighed against the lingering concerns from the East.