BASF: China Visit and Deep Cost Cuts Fuel Analyst Divergence

BASF pursues rare-earth access in China while executing CoreShift cost cuts targeting 20% fixed-cost reduction by 2029. Stock at €50.69, analysts split on outlook.

Markus Kamieth’s trip to Beijing may have been about rare earths, but back home the real story is the scale of BASF’s internal overhaul. The chief executive joined a German economic delegation led by Economy Minister Katherina Reiche to secure access to critical raw materials, even as the chemicals group pushes through its most aggressive cost-cutting programme in years. The dual strategy — diplomatic outreach in Asia and operational restructuring in Europe — lays bare the competing pressures on the company.

The CoreShift efficiency programme targets a 20% reduction in cash-relevant fixed costs across the core segments of Chemicals, Materials, Industrial Solutions and Nutrition & Care by 2029, using 2024 as the base year. BASF has set up a dedicated “Core Transformation Office” under Julia Raquet, who reports directly to Kamieth. The cost drive is designed to strengthen earnings power in the group’s core businesses, with quarterly results in July set to offer the first measure of progress.

On the geopolitical front, the discussions in Peking and Guangdong province focused on reciprocal market access and fair competition. China, long the growth engine for global chemicals, has also become a source of dependency — particularly for rare earths vital to specialised chemical applications and the green transition. BASF’s Verbund site in Zhanjiang remains a long-term anchor for its Asian presence, and the delegation’s outcome is expected to shape the group’s raw-material strategy in the months ahead.

Analysts are drawing contrasting conclusions from the near-term outlook. Deutsche Bank Research reiterated its “Buy” rating with a €60 price target, pointing to a positive management presentation at the dbAccess European Champions Conference. Analyst Virginie Boucher-Ferte said consistent execution of the new strategy is building trust. Citibank’s Sebastian Satz, however, trimmed his target from €61 to €58 and removed BASF from the “Positive Catalyst Watch”. He argued that the faster-than-expected normalisation of Asian petrochemical prices limits margin expansion in the short term, though he maintained a buy recommendation.

The stock closed Friday at €50.69, down about 6% over the past 30 days but still showing a year-to-date gain of roughly 13%. The 50-day moving average of €52.05 sits above the current price, signalling near-term headwinds, while the relative strength index at 55.8 points to neutral momentum. BASF has continued its share buyback programme, repurchasing nearly 27 million own shares since November 2025, including more than 1.5 million in the latest reporting week. First-quarter earnings per share improved to €1.06 from €0.91 a year earlier, although revenue slipped slightly to around €16.02 billion. The detailed second-quarter report is scheduled for July 2026.