Almonty’s Twin-Track Strategy: Molybdenum Offtake Secured as Tungsten Expansion Hinges on Vote and Output Data

Almonty posts record Q1 revenue, but stock drops 7% on missing Sangdong tungsten production data; molybdenum deal secured, expansion vote looms.

Almonty Industries finds itself in an awkward moment of contradiction. The company posted blockbuster first-quarter revenue, locked in an offtake deal covering a second metal for the life of its flagship mine, and has a shareholder vote looming that could double its tungsten capacity. Yet the stock shed more than 7 percent on May 21, dragged down by a single missing piece: concrete production figures from the Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea.

Investors want to see extraction numbers, not just inauguration dates. Sangdong officially started operations on March 17, 2026, but subsequent quarterly reports have offered no specific tonnage from the ramp-up. That silence has fueled doubts about whether the mine is hitting its targets. Sangdong is the strategic centrepiece of Almonty’s future: Phase 1 is designed to produce around 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate annually, with an expansion to 1.2 million tonnes of processing capacity by 2027 that would cover roughly 40 percent of the world’s tungsten demand outside China.

The first-quarter results, released in the same period, should have been a bright spot. Revenue surged to $25.4 million, a 221 percent jump from a year earlier, driven by record tungsten prices and strong performance at the Panasqueira mine in Portugal. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $6.1 million. But a net loss of $5.3 million dragged down the bottom line, largely due to non-cash accounting charges totaling $8.4 million — $6.4 million from the revaluation of derivative liabilities and $2.0 million from warrant liabilities, both triggered by the stock’s rally from $12.07 to $20.24 during the quarter.

To sharpen its Western-facing credentials, Almonty moved its corporate headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana. The relocation aligns the company closer to the Pentagon and to its own Gentung tungsten project. A new chief financial officer, Jorge Beristain, will take the helm on June 1, 2026, tasked with steering the financial strategy through the next growth phase.

While investors wait for Sangdong’s tungsten output data, Almonty has already locked in revenue from the mine’s second product. The company signed an exclusive offtake agreement with South Korean processor SeAH M&S, which will buy the entire molybdenum production over Sangdong’s planned life at a guaranteed floor price of $19 per pound — spot prices currently hover around $22. The molybdenum facility, just 150 metres from the existing tungsten operation, is expected to begin output by the end of 2026 at an annual rate of roughly 5,600 tonnes. Shared infrastructure will keep costs low. SeAH is building a new plant in Texas to supply SpaceX and the US defence industry, further embedding Almonty into American supply chains — a point of growing importance as South Korea and other allies seek to reduce dependence on Chinese imports.

That geopolitical shift will come into sharp focus at the annual general meeting in Toronto on June 9, when shareholders vote on the second phase of tungsten expansion at Sangdong. Approval would lift processing capacity to 1.2 million tonnes annually by 2027, doubling the Phase 1 output. The timing is no accident: from January 2027, US defence contractors will be barred from using Chinese tungsten. Beijing currently controls more than 80 percent of global production, forcing a rapid reorganisation of supply lines. Almonty is positioning itself as the prime beneficiary of that pivot.

Analysts remain broadly bullish despite the recent share price retreat to around $17.30. Cantor Fitzgerald has a target of $25.80; Bank of America and B. Riley both project above $23. Alliance Global recently raised its target to $26.25, and D.A. Davidson rates the stock a buy at $25.00. The bull case rests on tungsten’s dual role in defence and the AI chip supply chain, plus the visibility offered by the SeAH offtake and the company’s solid cash position of roughly $260 million.

For now, though, the market is focused on a missing number. Until Sangdong starts publishing reliable monthly or quarterly production figures, the gap between ambitious analyst price targets and the current share price will remain a point of tension. The vote on June 9 will determine the speed of the expansion, but only the data from the mine itself can restore full confidence.