Almonty’s Tungsten Calculus: A 600% Rally Meets a USD 3,140 Price Shock and a 147x Revenue Multiple

Canadian miner Almonty profits from China’s tungsten dominance, with prices soaring 200% and US defense contracts securing future growth.

The global tungsten market is undergoing its most dramatic restructuring in decades, and a single midsized producer from Canada is reaping the rewards. Almonty Industries has seen its stock surge roughly 600 percent over the past twelve months, an ascent driven not by speculation alone but by a genuine supply crisis that shows no sign of easing. With China controlling more than 80 percent of the world’s tungsten output — and together with Russia and North Korea accounting for 95 percent — Western buyers are scrambling for alternatives. Almonty, with two projects in South Korea and the United States, has become the most visible non-Chinese beneficiary of this geopolitical shift.

The price of ammonium paratungstate, the benchmark for tungsten trading, has exploded from USD 862 per metric tonne unit in early January 2026 to about USD 3,140 by mid-May — a gain of more than 200 percent in less than five months. For Almonty, whose production costs at its flagship Sangdong mine range between USD 110 and USD 127 per MTU, the margin is almost surreal. The mine officially began operations on March 17, 2026, and the financial impact was immediate. First-quarter revenue jumped 221 percent year-on-year to CAD 25.4 million, while operating cash flow swung positive to CAD 9.7 million. The company now holds roughly CAD 260 million in cash, enough to fund the ramp-up without dilutive pressure.

Phase 1 at Sangdong is on track to reach full capacity in the third quarter of 2026, processing 640,000 tonnes of ore annually and producing around 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. That is just the beginning. Phase 2, expected by 2027, will expand throughput to 1.2 million tonnes, yielding more than 460,000 MTU of tungsten per year — more than double the current run rate. The location in the heart of South Korea’s semiconductor belt is no accident. Tungsten hexafluoride is a critical process gas in chip fabrication, and Japanese suppliers have already warned Korean semiconductor makers that their inventories will last only until the summer of 2026. That looming shortage adds another layer of urgency to Almonty’s production timeline.

Across the Pacific, Almonty is building a complementary asset with direct exposure to the US defense sector. The Browns Lake Project in Beaverhead County, Montana, sits in a historical tungsten district that supplied the US strategic reserves during World War II and the Korean War. Targeted for production in the second half of 2026, the mine has a potential annual capacity of 140,000 MTU, and more than 90 percent of that volume is already locked under long-term contracts with US defense and technology customers. The Pentagon’s ban on Chinese tungsten in military equipment takes effect in January 2027, effectively guaranteeing that Almonty will have a captive buyer for everything Browns Lake can produce.

The financial markets have priced this future into the stock with breathtaking speed. At a closing price of CAD 27.09, Almonty’s market capitalization stands at about CAD 7.35 billion — 147 times the trailing twelve-month revenue of CAD 50 million. Bank of America analysts justify the multiple by forecasting revenue of CAD 670 million for the current fiscal year and CAD 1.32 billion in 2027, up from just CAD 33 million last year. Alliance Global analyst Jake Sekelsky recently raised his price target to USD 26.25. Among nine analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is “Strong Buy.”

Technically, the rally has pushed the relative strength index to 74.5, signaling overbought conditions for a stock that has doubled since January. Yet the price remains 15 percent below the April high of CAD 32.07, and it has held above the 50-day moving average of CAD 26. The short-term caution is understandable, but the structural drivers are hard to ignore. The EU has classified tungsten as a critical raw material and aims to cover ten percent of its needs from domestic sources by 2030 — another long-term tailwind. The next major inflection point will be Sangdong’s Phase 1 full operation in the third quarter. If that ramp delivers as planned, the distance to the 52-week high may close quickly.