Almonty's Sangdong Mine Nears July Ramp-Up as $773 Million Convertible and Russell Entry Fuel a High-Volatility Bet

Despite raising $773M via an oversubscribed convertible bond, Almonty's stock fell 26% as its Sangdong tungsten mine prepares to start production in July. Analysts remain bullish on the critical mineral play.

Almonty Industries has secured a war chest of nearly $773 million through an oversubscribed convertible bond, yet its share price has slumped more than a quarter over the past month. The disconnect between operational progress and market sentiment highlights the high-stakes gamble investors are weighing as the company's flagship Sangdong tungsten project in South Korea prepares to start production next month.

The convertible note, which priced at a 2.25% coupon and matures in 2031, was upsized from an initial $700 million target after institutional demand triggered the full exercise of a $100 million greenshoe option. Net proceeds landed at $772.7 million after fees. The conversion price stands at approximately $27.40 per share. To cushion the dilutive impact, Almonty allocated $83 million to hedging arrangements.

Management has earmarked $543 million for working capital and potential acquisitions, with another $50 million directed at debt refinancing. The bulk of the fresh capital will flow into Sangdong, where the first phase of development is set to begin its ramp-up in July. The mine is designed to produce 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate annually in its initial phase, with a second phase targeted to double that output.

Despite the financing milestone and the approaching production start, the stock has been under heavy pressure. Shares closed at C$21.08 recently, down roughly 5% on the day and 26% over the previous month. That leaves the stock well below its 50-day moving average of C$26.76 and about 37% off the all-time high of C$33.35, a record set in April 2026. The relative strength index has fallen to 36.2, edging toward oversold territory, while the annualized 30-day volatility has surged past 100% — a stark reminder of the violent swings in both directions.

Over a 12-month horizon, however, the picture is dramatically different: the stock has gained 335%. Year-to-date, it is still up roughly 75%.

Analysts remain constructive despite the near-term turbulence. Oppenheimer raised its price target to $25.00 per share on June 3 and maintains an Outperform rating. Sphene Capital also rates the stock a Buy with a target of C$37.40. B. Riley has echoed positive views, citing the long-term potential of Sangdong as a critical non-Chinese source of tungsten for defense, munitions, and electronics.

The company’s strategic pivot to the West was reinforced at its annual general meeting on June 9, where shareholders re-elected a seven-member board that includes defense industry experts. The vote also confirmed Zeifmans LLP as auditor, and CEO Lewis Black received approval ratings between 63% and 79%. Separately, Almonty relocated its headquarters to Montana to strengthen ties with Western military supply chains.

A significant near-term catalyst arrives on June 29, when the stock will be added to the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices. The inclusion will force index-tracking funds to accumulate shares and raise the company’s profile among institutional investors.

For now, the market is waiting for tangible output from Sangdong. The alignment of a fully funded mine, a rebalanced capital structure, and index inclusion could shift the narrative — but only if the ramp-up delivers as promised.