Almonty's Molybdenum Deal Provides Revenue Backstop as Tungsten Expansion Vote Looms

Shareholders vote June 9 on doubling Sangdong tungsten capacity to 1.2M tonnes; molybdenum offtake with SeAH locks revenue, links to US defense supply chain.

Shareholders in Almonty Industries face a pivotal decision on June 9 when they gather in Toronto to vote on a second-phase tungsten expansion at the Sangdong mine in South Korea. The outcome will determine whether processing capacity can double to 1.2 million tonnes annually by 2027, potentially covering 40% of the tungsten market outside China. But even before that vote, the company has locked in a separate revenue stream that adds ballast to its bull case.

Almonty has signed an exclusive offtake agreement with South Korean processor SeAH M&S for the entire molybdenum output from the same site over the mine's planned life. A floor price of US$19 per pound guarantees minimum revenue, while the metal currently trades around US$22. Production is expected to begin in late 2026 at an annual rate of roughly 5,600 tonnes. Crucially, the molybdenum deposit sits just 150 metres from the existing tungsten operation, allowing shared infrastructure and lower costs.

The end market for that molybdenum reinforces Almonty's strategic positioning. SeAH is building a new plant in Texas that will supply SpaceX and the US defence industry, linking the Korean mine directly to Western supply chains. With Beijing controlling more than 80% of global tungsten production and a US ban on Chinese tungsten for defence contractors kicking in from January 2027, buyers are scrambling for alternatives. Almonty's twin-track approach in tungsten and molybdenum places it at the centre of that realignment.

The financial foundations for both projects look solid. First-quarter revenue jumped 221% to US$25.4 million, while adjusted EBITDA swung from negative US$2.4 million to positive US$6.1 million. Operating cash flow turned positive at US$9.7 million, a marked improvement from the US$4.4 million outflow in the year-ago period. The company reported a net loss of US$5.3 million, but Almonty attributed that to non-cash revaluation charges of US$8.4 million on derivative liabilities — an accounting adjustment with no impact on liquidity or operations. Cash on hand stood at US$259.9 million at the end of March, with working capital of US$169.5 million.

The market has taken notice. Almonty shares have nearly doubled since the start of the year, and the stock traded at C$25.89 on May 22, near the upper end of a 52-week range that spans from C$3.51 to C$33.35. Analysts see further upside: Alliance Global lifted its price target to US$26.25, D.A. Davidson maintains a buy with a US$25.00 target, and Bank of America set a new target of US$23.00.

Management has also signaled a geographic shift. Almonty has relocated its corporate headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana, citing proximity to its Gentung tungsten project and closer ties with US defence and industrial partners. The move underscores a broader strategy to position tungsten as a critical metal for defence and advanced technology, with Sangdong in Korea serving as a non-Chinese supply hub.

Last week, CEO Lewis Black presented the company's critical-metals narrative at the 19th International Investment Forum, a timely reminder to investors that Almonty is actively courting attention. But the real catalysts lie ahead: the June 9 vote on capacity expansion, the ramp-up of existing tungsten output, and the final mine plan for molybdenum now being completed. With a cash-rich balance sheet, a secured offtake agreement, and a clear path to production, Almonty has built a foundation that goes well beyond narrative — though the next concrete milestone will be what really drives the stock.