Almonty's Defining Month: Shareholder Vote, Molybdenum Offtake and a U.S. Tungsten Ban Collide

U.S. ban on Chinese tungsten from 2027 opens opportunity. Almonty’s Sangdong mine expansion, molybdenum deal, and strong finances position it as key supplier to American defense.

A little-known regulatory shift in Washington is about to reshape the global tungsten supply chain. From January 2027, U.S. defense contractors will be barred from sourcing the strategic metal from China, which currently controls the lion’s share of production. Almonty Industries, a Canadian-headquartered junior miner with a premier asset in South Korea, is racing to turn that window of opportunity into a sustained competitive advantage.

The company’s timeline is aggressive. On June 9, shareholders will meet in Toronto to vote on doubling the processing capacity at the Sangdong mine to 1.2 million tonnes of ore per year. If approved, the expansion would allow Almonty to supply roughly 40% of the non-Chinese tungsten market by the end of 2027. The first phase, already in place, targets 640,000 tonnes annually with an expected yield of 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate — and the ore grade is three times the global average.

But Sangdong is only half the story. Just 150 metres away sits a fully permitted molybdenum project, and Almonty has already locked in a buyer for every pound. South Korean processor SeAH M&S has signed an exclusive off-take agreement at a floor price of $19 per pound, with production slated to begin by the end of 2026. SeAH is currently building a new plant in Texas that will supply SpaceX and the U.S. defence sector, giving Almonty a direct line into the American industrial base.

The financial foundation for both projects is solid. Almonty ended the first quarter with $259.9 million in cash, after revenue surged 221% year-on-year to $25.4 million. The main driver was an explosive rally in ammonium paratungstate prices, which rose more than 260% between January and May. That price tailwind flipped the operating result from red to black: adjusted EBITDA came in at $6.1 million, compared with a loss in the prior-year period.

Management has also reinforced the corporate structure. On June 1, Jorge Beristain will take over as chief financial officer, replacing Brian Fox. Beristain, who brings investment banking experience, will oversee the financing of the next growth phase. Meanwhile, the company shifted its head office from Toronto to Dillon, Montana, bringing it closer to the Gunpowder tungsten project and to key U.S. government and defence stakeholders.

The market is taking notice. Sphene Capital upgraded the stock to "Buy" and lifted its price target to C$37.40 from C$20.10, implying roughly 48% upside from a recent close of C$25.20. Diamond Equity Research has also raised its earnings estimates, citing lower costs as the mine ramps up. The shares have roughly doubled since the start of the year, though they have edged back to around C$24 in recent sessions.

The next concrete test arrives on May 21, when Almonty will publish its first production data from Sangdong. Those numbers will provide a reality check ahead of the shareholder vote — and a measure of whether the strategic tungsten story can harden into reliable cash flow. With the U.S. import ban little more than half a year away, the company is asking its investors to bet big on a post-China supply chain.