Almonty’s 412% Surge Meets the Industrial Mirror: Can Sangdong Scale Before the 2027 Tungsten Deadline?

Almonty shares fall 26% from highs as investors demand proof of sustained tungsten output. Sangdong mine starts production, but valuation pressures mount. US defense tungsten ban looms.

The stock market has a way of punishing good news that doesn’t arrive fast enough. Almonty Industries, which has seen its shares rocket more than 400% over the past twelve months, is now in the throes of a brutal reality check. The company that investors once celebrated as a speculative tungsten play is being asked to prove it can actually produce, and the market is tapping its foot.

Since hitting a year-to-date high in mid-April, the stock has dropped 26%, extending an earlier pullback that had already erased 21% from that peak. On the latest trading day alone, the shares slid 6.44% to C$24.68. The sell-off has been brisk enough to leave the equity 9% below its 50-day moving average, a clear short-term breakdown. Yet the long-term picture tells a very different story: the 200-day line still sits comfortably below the current price, and the 12-month gain stands at 412% — down from a peak of 440% earlier this year, but still among the best in the mining sector.

The driver of that staggering rally is no mystery. Almonty’s Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea, dormant for three decades, entered its first production phase in March 2026, turning a long-held promise into reality. The processing plant is now handling roughly 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, with a near-term target of 2,300 tonnes of concentrate. For a Western world desperate to break China’s stranglehold on critical minerals, Sangdong is the most advanced alternative on the board.

That geopolitical imperative is about to sharpen dramatically. As of January 1, 2027, the United States will ban the procurement of Chinese tungsten for defense applications. The Pentagon and its supply chain have no active domestic mines and rely almost entirely on imports. The countdown is now 18 months and counting, and the industrial-lobby machine is scrambling. Ammonium paratungstate prices have already surged 350% since the start of this year to around $3,000 per metric ton unit, reflecting a market that is pricing in the coming supply gap.

Almonty has not been idle on the corporate front. The company is relocating its headquarters to Dillon, Montana, placing itself squarely inside the U.S. defense procurement orbit. At the same time, it is pushing ahead with a molybdenum drilling program on the Sangdong property. Roughly 37% of the planned 12,000 meters have been completed, and South Korea is actively pushing domestic industry to secure its own molybdenum reserves for the aerospace and high-tech sectors.

The financial results, at least, are beginning to match the narrative. First-quarter revenue jumped 221% to $25.4 million, and adjusted operating profit swung to a positive $6.1 million. That kind of top-line momentum validates the thesis, but investors are now focused on sustainability. Almonty’s market capitalization has swelled to nearly €4.7 billion, a valuation that demands consistent operational delivery rather than exploration-stage excitement.

Technically, the stock appears to be consolidating rather than breaking down. The relative strength index sits at 46, neutral territory that suggests the selling has not become panicked. The equity still trades 47% above its long-term moving average, a cushion built during the spring rally. The primary uptrend remains intact as long as the 200-day line holds.

What comes next will depend entirely on industrial execution. Rivals such as Western Star Resources are only beginning their exploration programs, giving Almonty a critical head start. But the clock is ticking. The Pentagon deadline is the single most powerful catalyst for the entire tungsten market, and Almonty is the only Western producer with a mine already running. The market has given the shares a $4.7 billion vote of confidence. Now it wants to see the concentrate flow.