A 54% Rally Above Its 200-Day Average: VanEck Chip ETF’s Stunning Run Gets Interrupted by Broadcom’s Guidance Gap

Broadcom's cautious AI-chip outlook triggers a 10% sector sell-off, but the VanEck Semiconductor ETF remains 54% above its 200-day moving average amid strong long-term demand.

The VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF lost nearly 8% in a single session on Friday, closing at €92.04 and landing 10.6% below the 52-week high of €102.98 it set just days earlier on June 3. Yet for all the drama, the fund still sits more than 54% above its 200-day moving average of €59.61 — a reminder that even a brutal day of selling has only dented what remains an extraordinary rally.

The trigger was a classic “sell the news” moment. Broadcom beat second?quarter revenue expectations with $22.2 billion in sales, a 48% year?on?year increase. But the forward guidance hit a nerve: the company projected AI?chip revenue of $16 billion for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, missing the analyst consensus of $17.2 billion. The full?year outlook for AI semiconductors was left unchanged, but that did little to calm investors. Broadcom shares collapsed, and the selling quickly spread across the entire supply chain.

The broader sector felt the aftershocks. AMD, Intel, Micron and TSMC all suffered heavy losses. The PHLX Semiconductor Index slid more than 10% — its steepest one?day decline since March 2020. Macroeconomic headwinds amplified the move: rising government bond yields, a deepening slump in the memory?chip market and forecasts of a sharp drop in global smartphone demand added fuel to a fire that Broadcom’s cautious outlook had already ignited.

For the VanEck ETF, which tracks the MarketVector US Listed Semiconductor 10% Capped Screened Index, the sell?off hit every heavyweight in its portfolio — from Nvidia and TSMC to Applied Materials and Intel. Despite the rout, technical indicators paint a mixed picture. The annualised 30?day volatility has climbed to 46.22%, and the relative strength index sits at 55.1 — neither oversold nor overbought, but flashing a warning that sentiment can turn on a dime.

The structural demand story remains intact. The global chip market is projected to reach $975 billion in 2026, with some forecasts already eyeing the $1 trillion threshold. Since the start of the year the ETF has returned roughly 67%, and over twelve months the gain is above 147%. Those numbers explain why the 200?day average is so far below the current price — the rally has been that steep. But the Broadcom episode shows how sensitive this bull run has become to any deviation from the growth script.

All eyes now turn to Nvidia’s quarterly report, due in a few weeks. Every word on AI demand will be parsed with unprecedented scrutiny. The September rate decision from the Federal Reserve could add further pressure on high?growth tech names. For now, the chip sector is nursing a wound that took only one earnings call to inflict — yet the long?term tailwinds from artificial intelligence, 5G and the Internet of Things have not gone anywhere.