XRP at a Crossroads: Whales Move, Exchange Balances Decline, and Derivatives Turn Cautious

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XR P is currently presenting a mixed tableau?heavy whale transfers, shrinking exchange reserves, and a market split in sentiment. Some on-chain metrics hint at a potential floor, while the derivatives arena signals additional selling pressure. Here?s what this combination could mean for the near term.

Over the last 48 hours, the XRP ledger has seen a flurry of large-scale movements. Notable transfers include 125,000,000 XRP shifting between wallets, another 116,700,000 XRP, and a 50,000,000 XRP transfer from a private wallet to a major crypto exchange.

Overall, the count of XRP transfers valued at $100,000 or more rose to about 1,389 ? a four-month high. The migration of sizable holdings onto an exchange is commonly interpreted as a precursor to selling pressure, though it may also reflect tactical reallocation by market participants.

Conflicting Signals

The on-chain picture remains a mash-up. The MVRV-Z score, which gauges over- or undervaluation, has been negative for nearly two weeks, and historically this setup can precede price gains. Additionally, the number of active XRP addresses has climbed to a six-month high.

Conversely, exchange-held XRP balances have declined to roughly 1.7 billion tokens?the lowest level in seven years. Since the start of October 2025, this represents about a 55% drop. Shrinking exchange inventories are typically viewed as bullish, as investors move tokens into private wallets for longer-term custody.

Derivatives Market Remains Skeptical

The XRP funding rate has turned negative and recently logged a ten-month low. This indicates that derivatives traders are predominantly positioning for softer prices and are paying to maintain short exposure.

At the same time, demand for the Ripple ecosystem?s stablecoin RLUSD continues to grow, topping the $1.52 billion mark. This is seen as a sign of increasing ecosystem uptake.

The near-term trajectory remains uncertain. On the one hand, factors like dwindling exchange inventories and rising on-chain activity could stabilize prices; on the other hand, speculative activity in the derivatives space remains cautious.