Voestalpine Shares Find Support in Record Contract and Analyst Confidence

Voestalpine AT0000937503

Voestalpine has secured the largest single order in its history for automated storage systems, providing a significant boost to the growth narrative of its Metal Forming Division. Concurrently, the anticipated negative impact from the stock's removal from a specialized ESG index failed to materialize, leaving the share price resilient. Market observers are now assessing the combined effect of these developments on the Austrian steel and technology group's equity.

On January 15, Voestalpine announced a record-breaking contract to supply a high-bay warehouse system. The project involves constructing a new logistics center in Istanbul for a leading Turkish logistics provider, which will be dedicated to sporting goods.

Key details of the project include:

• A contract value of approximately €41 million.
• A warehouse structure measuring nearly 40 meters in height, 222 meters in length, and 86 meters in width.
• The inclusion of an automated small-parts storage (Miniload) system.
• A scheduled completion date of April 2027.

Company management highlighted the sustained, strong demand for automated storage solutions in recent years, framing this order as validation of its technological capabilities. The Metal Forming Division is considered well-established internationally in this segment, with a growing footprint beyond Europe.

Strategic Growth in Storage Systems

The Istanbul project is not an isolated success but part of a series of major contracts. Recently, the division completed two 45-meter-high storage facilities for furniture retailer JYSK's distribution center in the Netherlands. In the United Kingdom, work is underway on a fully automated pallet racking system, 30 meters high, for a retail company.

In parallel, the division is expanding its presence in the North American market. During the 2024/25 financial year, a new, specially designed production site was established in Kentucky to serve US clients. This facility is slated for expansion with additional equipment in the current fiscal year.

Financially, the Metal Forming Division is already a substantial contributor:

• FY 2024/25 Revenue: €3.1 billion
• FY 2024/25 EBITDA: €169.3 million
• Employees: Approximately 10,900

This record order thus bolsters a segment explicitly targeted by Voestalpine for future growth.

Resilient Share Price Amid Index Reshuffle

The removal of Voestalpine shares from the "iSTOXX L&G Developed Europe ex UK Diversified Multi-Factor ESG" Index took effect on January 19. Despite the potential for technical selling pressure from passive funds tracking the index, the share price demonstrated notable stability.

Several factors contributed to this resilience:

• The exclusion was limited to a single, specialized ESG index.
• The company's membership in core indices, such as Austria's ATX, remains unchanged.
• On the day preceding the removal, the share price actually gained 1.44% to close at €39.32.

Since the start of the year, the stock has traded near its three-year high, reaching an interim peak of €40 on January 12. This price action suggests that fundamentally-driven investors effectively offset any selling related to the index change.

Market Experts Maintain a Largely Positive Stance

The current analyst consensus is predominantly favorable, reflecting the company's solid operational performance.

Selected analyst ratings and price targets:

• Morgan Stanley: Overweight, price target €40.70 (confirmed January 6, 2026)
• Deutsche Bank: Buy, price target €44.00
• UBS: Buy, price target €43.00 (upgraded from Hold in November 2025)
• BNP Paribas Exane: Neutral, price target €38.50 (January 2026)
• J.P. Morgan: Overweight, price target €43.40

Of the 13 analysts covering the stock, three assign a Buy rating, three an Overweight/Outperform rating, and seven a Hold rating. On average, the consensus points to moderate upside potential without excessive optimism.

Looking Ahead: Financial Results and Guidance in Focus

The company is scheduled to publish its Q3 2025/26 quarterly figures in February. Management has thus far reaffirmed its full-year EBITDA guidance of €1.4 to €1.55 billion.

Operationally, the railway systems, aerospace, and storage systems divisions are providing the most robust support for earnings. Restructuring efforts continue in the group's weaker segments. A key question for investors is whether the record Istanbul contract and sustained demand in storage solutions will help achieve results in the upper half of the guided EBITDA range.