Viking Therapeutics: Investors Eye Pivotal Phase 3 Catalyst

Viking Therapeutics US92686J1060

Market experts continue to highlight Viking Therapeutics as a compelling investment opportunity, maintaining bullish outlooks despite recent share price volatility. Notably, the firm H.C. Wainwright has reiterated a price target of $102 per share. From a current level near $37, this implies a potential upside exceeding 170%, contingent on the company's clinical success.

The primary driver for the stock's future trajectory is the ongoing "VANQUISH" Phase 3 trial for the drug candidate VK2735, an injectable therapy for weight management. Viking completed patient enrollment for this critical study in November. The upcoming milestones are central to the investment case:

• Topline Data: Pivotal results from the trial are anticipated in 2026 and are expected to be a major sentiment catalyst for the shares.
• Commercialization Pathway: A potential market launch is currently projected for around 2028.
• Pipeline Expansion: The company is concurrently developing an oral formulation of VK2735 to compete effectively with rival oral treatments.

The investment narrative is heavily tied to the clinical progress and timeline of this single, high-potential asset.

Financial Health and Runway

Viking's balance sheet provides a solid foundation for its development plans. As of the end of the third quarter, the company reported cash and cash equivalents of approximately $715 million. The net loss for that quarter was $90.8 million, a figure notably lower than some previous erroneous reports had suggested.

For the first nine months of the year, the cumulative net loss totaled about $202 million. This financial profile indicates two key points:

1. The current liquidity position is likely sufficient to fund major upcoming clinical milestones.
2. The sustained high cash burn rate underscores the need to secure adequate financing through to a potential product launch, a common challenge for clinical-stage biotech firms without approved products.

Technical and Valuation Perspective

From an analytical standpoint, several factors support the current valuation:

• Valuation Metrics: Based on projections for the fiscal year 2030, the expected Enterprise Value-to-Sales (EV/Sales) ratio is approximately 2.28, which appears attractive relative to industry peers.
• Chart Analysis: Technically, the stock has established stable support between the $33 and $35 levels, which held during recent corrective phases. Immediate resistance is encountered in the $39 to $40 range.

This setup presents a technically defined risk-reward profile for traders.

Navigating a Competitive Landscape

The market for obesity therapeutics is highly competitive and evolving rapidly. Novo Nordisk recently secured FDA approval for an oral formulation of Wegovy, raising the stakes for competing oral programs. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly is advancing the development of Orforglipron.

For Viking, this environment means that a potential 2028 launch for VK2735 would see it entering a market with established competitors. To capture meaningful market share, the company will likely need to demonstrate not only efficacy but also potential advantages in safety, tolerability, or convenience.

Risk Assessment

Despite the optimistic analyst coverage, the risks are well-defined:

• The timeline to potential commercialization extends to 2028, providing ample time for competitors to solidify their market positions.
• While the $715 million cash reserve is substantial, the high costs associated with Phase 3 programs may necessitate additional capital raises in the future.
• Although completing patient recruitment for the Phase 3 study reduces some development uncertainty, it does not guarantee positive efficacy results from the pending data readouts.

Consequently, the 2026 topline data readout will be crucial. The ultimate question for investors is whether Viking Therapeutics can deliver a competitive product profile—both injectable and oral—with VK2735 in the fiercely contested obesity market.