Valneva Shares Take a Breather After February Surge

Valneva's stock consolidates after a strong rally. 2026 revenue guidance is cautious, but Phase 3 Lyme vaccine data in H1 2026 is a key catalyst for growth.

Following a powerful rally in February, Valneva's stock momentum has paused. The recent pullback appears less like a fundamental shift in sentiment and more akin to a reality check after rapid gains, prompted by a mixed forward outlook. The critical question for investors now is whether 2026 will be a transitional year operationally or if the next clinical milestone will reignite the growth narrative.

A Closer Look at the Recent Price Action

Valneva shares closed Thursday's session at €4.70. On a weekly basis, the movement of -0.04% is essentially flat. The more significant context is found in the monthly view: the stock is up a notable +19.47% over the past 30 days and has gained +22.46% since the start of the year.

Profit-taking after such a run is not unusual, especially when technical indicators suggest short-term overextension. The 14-day RSI sits at 18.9. Concurrently, the share price trades well above its longer-term moving averages—approximately 12.9% above the 50-day average (€4.16) and roughly 24.3% above the 200-day average (€3.78). This points to a structurally intact longer-term trend but also indicates heightened potential for near-term volatility.

2025 Performance and a More Cautious 2026 Forecast

The key driver for the stock in February was the release of preliminary, unaudited full-year 2025 figures on February 19. The company reported total revenues of €174.7 million, with €157.9 million derived from product sales—figures the company stated were within its previously communicated guidance.

However, Valneva's cash position declined to €109.7 million at the end of 2025 (from €168.3 million at the end of 2024). Management highlighted an improved financial flexibility following a debt refinancing completed in 2025.

The forward guidance struck a more defensive tone. For 2026, the company anticipates total revenues between €155 million and €170 million, with expected product sales of €145 million to €160 million—both ranges below the preliminary 2025 results. This projection is attributed to the planned phase-out of third-party product sales, even as the company's own commercial brands are expected to continue growing.

Pipeline Progress and the Lingering IXCHIQ Situation

According to Valneva, the central catalyst for 2026 will be the Phase 3 data from the VALOR study for its Lyme disease vaccine candidate, VLA15, developed in partnership with Pfizer. These results are expected in the first half of 2026. A positive outcome could significantly alter the company's financial perspective through milestone payments and licensing fees, representing the core hope that has recently supported the share price.

Additionally, Valneva expects initial Phase 2 data for its tetravalent Shigella vaccine candidate, S4V2, with a decision on further development slated for the second half of 2026.

The IXCHIQ vaccine remains a complicating factor. In January 2026, Valneva announced the withdrawal of its U.S. Biologics License Application (BLA) and Investigational New Drug (IND) application from the FDA. This followed the agency's suspension of the license in August 2025, a decision linked to reports of serious adverse events, including neurological and cardiac complications. IXCHIQ remains approved in several other markets, including Europe, Canada, the UK, and Brazil. In Brazil, a pilot vaccination campaign with Instituto Butantan began on February 3 to gather real-world data.

The next scheduled events on the corporate calendar are the publication of the audited 2025 full-year results on March 16, 2026, followed by the Q1 2026 report on May 7, 2026. In the interim, the market is likely to weigh two opposing factors: the more cautious revenue framework for 2026 against the pipeline-driven milestones expected in the first half of the year.