US Grants 30-Day Waiver on Iranian Oil Sales as Brent Tops $112 Amid Strait of Hormuz Closure

The US Treasury issued a 30-day license allowing sales of Iranian crude already loaded on vessels, aiming to ease supply strains from the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz shutdown, with Brent settling at $112.19—the highest since 2022.

The US Treasury Department issued a general license on Friday permitting the sale of Iranian crude and petroleum products already loaded onto vessels, valid until April 19. This move targets surging **oil prices** amid the US-Israel conflict with Iran, which has led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

As of: March 21, 2026

Dr. Elena Voss, Senior Commodities Analyst at EuroEnergy Insights. Tracking geopolitical risk premiums in European energy markets.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated the waiver could release around 140 million barrels into global markets, primarily benefiting China as the largest buyer of Iranian crude. Energy Secretary Chris Wright noted supplies could reach Asia in 3-4 days, with refined products following over six weeks. Brent crude futures settled at **$112.19** per barrel on Friday, up 3.26%, the highest since July 2022. WTI for April expired at **$98.32**, with the next month at $98.23.

Conflict Triggers Supply Shock

The price surge stems from escalation since February 28, when US and Israeli strikes on Iran began. Iran retaliated by targeting Israel and Gulf bases hosting US forces, hitting key energy infrastructure. Iran has shut the Strait of Hormuz, handling 20% of global oil flows—roughly 20 million barrels per day. Iraq declared force majeure on foreign-operated oilfields, compounding disruptions.

Oil prices have risen 50% since late February. The waiver is the third sanctions relaxation in two weeks, following eased Russian oil restrictions. It excludes imports to Cuba, North Korea, and Crimea, focusing on at-sea cargoes to avoid direct US imports, banned since 1979.

Market Impact of the Waiver

Confirmed facts: The license covers only pre-loaded cargoes, estimated at 140 million barrels. No US imports are expected due to longstanding policy. Deliveries target Asia, potentially easing regional tightness. However, energy analyst Brent Erickson warns the impact will be limited without reopening the Strait.

For **crude oil** specifically, this adds floating supply but does not address the 20 million bpd Hormuz blockage. Near-term relief may cap prices at $110-120, but prolonged closure risks $150 per barrel, per Kotak Securities' Kayanat Chainwala and Nuvama Equities. The US also waived the Jones Act for 60 days, allowing foreign ships for US domestic fuel transport.

Interpretation: While 140 million barrels equals about a week's global supply, logistics delays and buyer caution limit immediate effects. Markets reacted positively Friday, but Monday opens uncertain as traders assess conflict evolution.

European and DACH Investor Exposure

Europe faces acute risks from Hormuz closure. The continent imports 90% of its oil, with Middle East supplies critical for refineries in Germany, Netherlands, and Switzerland. Brent, the European benchmark, at $112 signals higher diesel and jet fuel costs, pressuring transport and industry.

In the DACH region, German refineries like Bayernoil and Miro process Gulf crudes; disruptions raise input costs, squeezing margins for firms like OMV and Gunvor. Swiss traders, handling 10% of global oil flows, face freight spikes. ECB watches energy inflation, with oil above $110 potentially pushing eurozone CPI over 3%, complicating rate cuts.

English-speaking investors in Europe track **Brent crude** for ETF/ETC exposure (e.g., via London exchanges) and inflation-hedge plays. Higher oil feeds German producer prices, impacts Stoxx 600 Energy sector, and strengthens the energy import bill—negative for the euro versus dollar.

Risk Premium and Price Outlook

The **oil price** embeds a $20-30 geopolitical premium, analysts estimate. Waiver news trimmed gains, but US plans to deploy more Marines to the Middle East signal escalation. Iran's Hormuz blockade persists, with no diplomatic breakthrough.

Near-term: Prices may test $120 if Iraq force majeure holds. Beyond $125, global stress mounts—India's oil marketers face earnings hits, LPG subsidies balloon. Europe sees diesel cracks widen, benefiting refiners short-term but risking recession if sustained.

OPEC+ absent from headlines, but voluntary cuts amplify tightness. No new production announcements; focus remains geopolitical. Strategic reserves may release, but restocking later rebounds demand.

Supply-Demand Imbalance Deepens

Hormuz closure removes 20 million bpd instantly. Iraq's foreign fields offline adds 1-2 million bpd risk. Iranian exports, typically 1.5 million bpd to China, now float under waiver but face shipping hazards.

Demand holds: China restocks aggressively, Europe rationing unlikely yet. Refinery runs steady outside Gulf, but Asian margins explode on spot crudes. WTI discounts Brent by $14, reflecting US shale buffer versus European exposure.

Freight rates for VLCCs to Asia spike 50%, deterring reroutes. Alternative routes (Cape of Good Hope) add $5-10 per barrel costs, passed to consumers.

Central Bank and Macro Context

Fed holds rates amid inflation spike; oil at $110 revives 2022 fears. ECB faces dilemma: energy-led CPI rise delays easing, pressures growth. US dollar strengthens on safe-haven flows, capping oil upside but hurting euro holders.

For DACH investors, higher oil correlates with 10-year Bund yields up 20bps this week, compressing equity multiples. Swiss franc gains as haven, benefiting commodity hedgers.

Trading Implications and Risks

Positioning: Funds long Brent at multi-year highs; shorts covered amid volatility. Volatility index (OVX) spikes 40%. Options skew bullish, pricing $120 calls.

Risks: Strait reopening on diplomacy (low odds); Iran escalation hitting Saudi fields; US SPR release (60 million barrels floated). Upside: Prolonged war, winter demand if reroutes fail.

European traders eye diesel futures on ICE, up 5% weekly. DACH industrials (chemicals, autos) hedge aggressively. Investors rotate to refiners (positive crack spreads) over pure upstream.

Sentiment on social platforms turns bearish on recession but bullish on supply crunch. No EIA/API data amid holidays, but private draws expected.

Disclaimer: Not investment advice. Commodities and other financial instruments are volatile.