US Equities Pull Back After Ceasefire Rally as Trump Blocks Trade Deal, Nasdaq Holds Key Support

Following last week's strong gains on US-Iran ceasefire news, US stocks eased Friday amid President Trump's surprise veto of a key trade pact, with Nasdaq 100 testing support at 24,200 while S&P 500 and Dow pare gains—key levels for US investors to watch.

US equity markets retreated Friday after a powerful weekly rally fueled by a US-Iran ceasefire agreement, as President Trump delivered a surprise veto on a major trade deal, injecting fresh uncertainty into Wall Street. The move, dubbed the 'Trump card' by market analysts, overshadowed the positive geopolitics and highlighted ongoing policy risks for US investors holding positions in tech-heavy Nasdaq names and broader indices.

As of: Monday, April 13, 2026, 2:27 AM ET

Weekly Rally Meets Friday Fade

Last week marked a standout period for US stocks, with the **Nasdaq 100** surging 4.45%—its strongest weekly performance since November 2025—while the **S&P 500** climbed 3.56% and the **Dow Jones Industrial Average** added 1,411 points or 3.04%.1 The catalyst was a surprise two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, paving the way for formal peace talks in Pakistan over the weekend. This de-escalation eased fears of broader Middle East conflict, boosting risk assets across the board. For US investors, the rally provided much-needed relief after a choppy Q1 marked by persistent inflation concerns and Federal Reserve hawkishness.

However, Friday's session saw gains evaporate as President Trump vetoed a proposed trade agreement with key Asian partners, citing national security risks. The decision sent ripples through export-sensitive sectors, with semiconductors and industrials leading the pullback. The Nasdaq 100 closed the week above critical support at 24,200—the October 2025 low and recent gap level—but faces immediate tests if selling pressure intensifies.1 US investors in ETFs like QQQ or individual tech names such as NVDA and AAPL should monitor this level closely, as a break below could signal a deeper correction toward the late-March low of 22,841.

Trump's Veto: Policy Risk in Focus

President Trump's intervention—playfully labeled the 'Trump card'—came just as markets anticipated progress on trade normalization. The veto blocks a deal that would have lowered tariffs on electronics and machinery imports, directly impacting companies like Apple, Boeing, and Caterpillar. Analysts note this aligns with Trump's long-standing protectionist stance, but the timing caught investors off-guard amid the ceasefire optimism.

For US retail and professional investors, this underscores the premium on policy unpredictability. Trade-sensitive S&P 500 sectors, which comprise over 20% of the index, could face headwinds if negotiations stall. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened modestly on the news, pressuring multinational earnings. Treasury yields ticked higher, with the 10-year at 4.35%, reflecting bets on sustained Fed tightening despite softer jobs data earlier in the week.

Nasdaq Technical Outlook: Support Holding, Upside Potential

Technicians remain cautiously optimistic on the Nasdaq 100. As long as it holds above 24,200, the recent correction is viewed as complete, with upside targeting a retest of the 26,182 peak.1 Volume patterns last week showed strong buying on dips, a bullish signal for continuation. Key resistance looms at 25,500, where prior highs cluster.

US investors tracking leveraged ETFs like TQQQ or inverse plays like SQQQ will find these levels pivotal. A breakout above 26,182 could ignite fresh legs higher, driven by AI enthusiasm and cooling geopolitical risks. Conversely, failure at support risks a 10% drawdown, aligning with historical post-rally pullbacks.

S&P 500 and Dow: Broader Market Resilience

The S&P 500's 3.56% weekly gain positions it just 2% from all-time highs, supported by broad participation beyond megacaps. Financials and energy outperformed, gaining 5.2% and 4.8% respectively, benefiting from higher yields and stable oil prices post-ceasefire. The Dow's 3.04% advance was led by blue-chips like UnitedHealth and Goldman Sachs, underscoring defensive rotation.

For US portfolio managers, this divergence highlights opportunities in value-oriented strategies. Rotation into small-caps (Russell 2000 up 4.1%) suggests dispersion favoring non-tech exposure amid valuation concerns in the Magnificent Seven.

Macro Backdrop: Fed Watch and Inflation Fears

Beneath the headlines, 'warflation'—inflation stoked by conflict—remains a tail risk, though the ceasefire mutes it. NerdWallet highlights impacts beyond gas, including supply chain snarls hitting consumer prices.2 March jobs data added 178,000 positions, beating estimates, but Q4 GDP slowdown tempers soft-landing hopes.2

Charles Schwab commentary emphasizes Washington battles over Fed policy and budgets, with Q1 bank earnings looming as a litmus test.3 JPMorgan and peers report Tuesday, with high expectations for net interest income but loan growth worries. US investors should eye guidance on recession odds, as it could sway rate cut bets for June.

Sector Implications for US Investors

Tech faces near-term pressure from trade veto but long-term tailwinds from AI capex. Semiconductors (SOXX ETF up 5.8% weekly) hold strong, though Trump's rhetoric clouds outlook. Energy benefits most from de-escalation, with oil steady at $78/barrel, supporting XLE holders.

Financials shine on yield curve steepening, ideal for KRE (regional banks) plays. Consumer discretionary lags, reflecting 'warflation' on durables. US investors in SPY or VOO should consider tactical overlays via options for hedging policy vol.

Risks and Catalysts Ahead

Key risks include peace talk breakdowns, escalating trade wars, or hot CPI prints. Upside catalysts: successful Pakistan summit, dovish Fed dots, blowout bank beats. Volatility index (VIX) eased to 16, but spikes above 20 signal caution.

For retail traders, dollar-cost averaging into dips above support remains viable. Pros may eye pairs trades: long small-cap value vs. short megatech.

Trading Strategies in Context

Given the setup, swing traders target Nasdaq bounces to 25,500. Long-term holders maintain core equity exposure but trim cyclicals. Hedging via TMV (inverse long Treasuries) counters yield risks.

StockInvest.us signals highlight short-term sell patterns in select names, urging discipline.4 US options flow shows heavy put buying in NVDA, reflecting caution.

Global Ties and Dollar Impact

The ceasefire bolsters EM currencies, indirectly aiding US multinationals. Trump's veto strengthens USD (DXY +0.8%), hurting overseas revenue but favoring importers. Gold dipped to $2,650/oz as safe-haven demand wanes.

Investor Positioning Recommendations

Retail: Stick to diversified ETFs, add on weakness above supports. Pros: Overweight financials/energy, underweight trade-vulnerable industrials. Monitor volume for confirmation.

Further Reading

IG: US Equities Analysis
NerdWallet: Personal Finance News
Schwab Market Commentary
StockInvest.us Technical Signals

Disclaimer: Not investment advice. Financial instruments and markets are volatile.