Thyssenkrupp's Stock Caught Between Tariff Hopes and Steel Sector Reality

Thyssenkrupp shares surge on EU steel import caps but face a net loss. Key catalysts include the TK Elevator IPO and upcoming EU tariff vote.

Thyssenkrupp shares are navigating a turbulent period, pulled in opposite directions by analyst downgrades and a sudden rally fueled by European trade policy. The stock, trading around €9.08, recently surged over 8% in a week, pushing it above the €9.00 price target set by Barclays. The British investment bank maintains an "Underweight" rating, citing a weak steel environment, geopolitical risks, and lowered profit forecasts. This places Barclays at the pessimistic end of the spectrum, with the broader analyst consensus target sitting at €10.78.

The recent price jump stems directly from Brussels. EU member states and Parliament have agreed on significantly stricter steel import rules. Annual duty-free import volumes will be slashed by 47% to 18.3 million tonnes. Quantities exceeding this new cap will face punitive tariffs of 50%, double the previous rate. The regulation is set to take effect from July 1, 2026, following formal adoption. This political move aims to counter a flood of cheap Asian steel, which has tripled EU imports since 2022—a development Angelo Di Martino, head of Thyssenkrupp Electrical Steel, has labeled ruinous.

Despite this potential long-term relief, immediate operational pressures are severe. The company's first-quarter results revealed the strain: while revenue reached €7.2 billion and adjusted EBIT was €211 million, massive restructuring costs of €401 million at Steel Europe alone plunged the group into a net loss of €334 million. Management anticipates a full-year net loss between €400 million and €800 million. The stock remains down year-to-date and roughly 31% below its 52-week high.

These financial headwinds are forcing radical cuts. Thyssenkrupp will completely shut down production at its Isbergues plant in France from June through September, following operations at half capacity since January. The move puts around 1,200 jobs in focus across France and the Gelsenkirchen site in Germany. For the Gelsenkirchen location, however, management has ruled out new closures for now.

Beyond steel, the company's future hinges on a major divestment. Thyssenkrupp retains a stake of just over 16% in its former elevator unit, TK Elevator. The main owners are targeting a stock market listing in the second half of 2026, seeking a valuation of up to €25 billion. An alternative could be a full takeover by Finnish rival Kone. A successful exit would provide crucial funds for debt reduction.

Investors are now looking to a trio of upcoming catalysts. The half-year report in May will deliver hard facts on the operational situation. Shortly after, by June 30, the EU is expected to formally vote on the new steel tariff ordinance. Finally, the TK Elevator IPO process will advance in the latter part of the year. Technically, the stock finds support near €9.00; a break below could see a retest of the March low of €7.15.