Tesla Shares Under Pressure as Quarterly Deliveries and Safety Concerns Converge

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Tesla's stock is facing a challenging start to the year, weighed down by a combination of anticipated weak quarterly results and emerging safety investigations. The electric vehicle manufacturer's shares traded near $450 on Friday as investors awaited the official release of its fourth-quarter delivery figures.

The company's lofty market valuation, standing at approximately $1.5 trillion, is coming under increased scrutiny as its core automotive business shows signs of stagnation. Investor confidence has largely been anchored in future technologies, particularly the development of autonomous driving systems and the planned launch of a robotaxi, dubbed the "Cybercab," announced for April 2026. However, reports indicate a delay for the more affordable "Project Redwood" model, now pushed to the second half of 2026.

Delivery Consensus Points to Significant Decline

In an unusual move earlier this week, Tesla's investor relations page published a consensus estimate for its Q4 vehicle deliveries, setting expectations at approximately 422,850 units. This figure would represent a substantial 15% drop compared to the 495,000 vehicles delivered in the same quarter the previous year. Analysts attribute the anticipated shortfall primarily to U.S. tax policy shifts; the expiration of federal electric vehicle incentives at the end of September 2025 pulled significant consumer demand forward into the third quarter, leaving a gap in Q4.

Safety Report Adds to Investor Unease

Compounding the delivery concerns is a recent Bloomberg report linking Tesla's electronic door release system to at least 15 fatalities since 2012. The report details incidents where occupants or emergency responders were unable to open doors following crashes that resulted in vehicle fires. The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is continuing to monitor the situation, adding another layer of uncertainty for the company.

Intensifying Competitive Landscape

Further pressure stems from the evolving competitive dynamics within the global EV market. Chinese automaker BYD has overtaken Tesla as the world's largest producer of purely battery-powered vehicles. BYD reported sales exceeding 2.25 million electric cars in 2025, while Tesla is estimated to have delivered around 1.65 million units for the year.

Market participants are now focused on the imminent release of the final Q4 delivery numbers. A result falling below the 422,850-vehicle consensus could see Tesla's stock test technical support levels around $440. Attention will then shift to the earnings call scheduled for January, where CEO Elon Musk is expected to address the safety allegations directly and provide updates on the robotaxi timeline.