Tesla Shares Under Pressure as Deliveries Disappoint and Key Contract Implodes

Tesla US88160R1014

Tesla's stock, currently trading at $454, has recorded its fourth consecutive day of losses following a series of concerning developments. The electric vehicle maker faces a dual challenge: a significant projected drop in quarterly vehicle deliveries and the near-total devaluation of a major battery supply agreement.

In an unusual pre-emptive move, Tesla published a consolidated analyst consensus on its investor relations website ahead of its official quarterly report. The figures present a sobering outlook.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, analysts now anticipate only 422,850 vehicle deliveries. This represents a steep 15 percent decline compared to the same period last year. Furthermore, this forecast falls substantially below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 445,061 units.

The full-year picture for 2025 is equally troubling:

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Tesla?

• Expected total deliveries: 1.64 million vehicles
• Year-over-year change: -8.3% (2024: 1.79 million)
• This marks the second consecutive year of declining sales

Billion-Dollar Battery Deal Nearly Written Off

Compounding the delivery concerns, South Korean supplier L&F Co. has slashed the value of its supply contract with Tesla by over 99 percent. Originally signed in 2023, the $2.9 billion agreement was for high-nickel cathode materials. By December 30, 2025, the contract's value was written down to a mere $7,386.

This contract was directly tied to the production of Tesla's 4680 battery cells, which are primarily used in the Cybertruck. Market observers interpret the near-complete write-down as a clear signal of severe issues in cell manufacturing and weak demand for the Cybertruck. Instead of the targeted 250,000 units, Cybertruck deliveries for 2025 are now expected to be below 20,000.

A Gap Between Projections and Performance

The latest data stands in stark contrast to the forecasts made by CEO Elon Musk at the start of the year. He had projected delivery growth of 20 to 30 percent; instead, sales are contracting by eight percent. Other announced initiatives have also failed to materialize as planned. The Robotaxi service was intended to reach 50 percent of the U.S. population, but currently only around 30 test vehicles are operating in Austin. Series production of the Tesla Semi has been postponed once more, now to 2026.

Analyst Outlook and Future Hopes

In response to the developments, analysts have downgraded their rating on Tesla shares to "Equal Weight." However, some see medium-term potential, with hopes pinned on the Cybercab, which is scheduled to begin production in April 2026. Wall Street projections estimate 1.75 million vehicle deliveries for 2026—a 6.6 percent increase. By 2029, the target is to surpass three million units. Whether these expectations prove more realistic than previous forecasts will be revealed in upcoming quarterly reports.