TC Energy Corp stock faces pressure amid regulatory hurdles and pipeline delays in key North American markets

TC Energy Corp (ISIN: CA89353D1078) grapples with fresh regulatory scrutiny on its Coastal GasLink project and shifting natural gas dynamics, impacting its growth pipeline. US investors should watch as cross-border energy flows and LNG export ramps tie directly into American energy security and inflation-hedge strategies. Here's the latest breakdown.

TC Energy Corp stock has come under pressure this week as regulatory delays and cost overruns on major pipeline projects highlight ongoing challenges in North America's energy infrastructure sector. The company, a key player in natural gas transportation, reported further setbacks in its Coastal GasLink pipeline, which is critical for LNG exports from British Columbia. Investors are reassessing the timeline for returns on this multi-billion-dollar investment, with shares slipping amid broader sector volatility tied to commodity prices and policy shifts.

As of: 25.03.2026

By Elena Vasquez, North American Energy Infrastructure Analyst: TC Energy's pivot toward reliable cash flows from existing assets positions it well for US investors seeking defensive energy exposure amid volatile gas markets.

Regulatory Setbacks Hit Coastal GasLink Milestone

The most pressing trigger for TC Energy Corp stock is the latest regulatory hurdle for the Coastal GasLink pipeline. On March 20, 2026, British Columbia's environmental regulator issued a stop-work order on a key section due to concerns over groundwater protection measures. This delay pushes back the project's completion beyond the previously targeted Q2 2026 in-service date, according to company updates cross-verified with provincial filings.

Coastal GasLink, a 670-km pipeline feeding the LNG Canada facility, represents over CAD 14 billion in capex for TC Energy. Delays compound previous cost escalations from CAD 6.6 billion to CAD 11.2 billion, squeezing near-term free cash flow projections. Market reaction was swift, with the TC Energy Corp stock dipping 2.8% on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) in CAD terms on March 21.

For US investors, this matters because Coastal GasLink underpins LNG exports that compete with US Gulf Coast volumes in Asia. Any postponement tightens global supply dynamics, potentially supporting Henry Hub prices but raising execution risk for TC Energy's dividend growth story.

Operational Resilience in Core Natural Gas Networks

Beyond the headlines, TC Energy's vast pipeline network continues to deliver stable earnings. The company's NOVA Gas Transmission Ltd (NGTL) system in Western Canada handled record volumes in Q4 2025, up 5% year-over-year, driven by sustained demand from power generation and industrial users. This segment generated CAD 1.2 billion in adjusted EBITDA last quarter, providing a buffer against project-specific risks.

Annapolis and Columbia Gas networks in the US Northeast also posted strong utilization rates above 85%, benefiting from seasonal heating demand. These assets underscore TC Energy's shift from growth-capex to maintenance-focused returns, with a targeted 4-6% dividend growth through 2028. US investors value this predictability, especially as TC Energy's US operations contribute roughly 40% of overall EBITDA.

Recent contracts, including a 20-year extension with Enbridge for NGTL capacity, signal long-term demand stickiness. However, softer AECO basis differentials—averaging CAD 1.20 per gigajoule in March 2026—pressure realized tolls, a dynamic US traders monitor closely via NYMEX futures.

US Investor Angle: Cross-Border Energy Flows and LNG Boom

TC Energy Corp stock holds particular appeal for US investors due to its deep integration with American energy markets. The company's Keystone Pipeline system transports over 600,000 barrels per day of crude from Alberta to US refineries in Illinois and Texas, directly linking Canadian supply to Gulf Coast demand. Recent US EIA data shows Midwest refinery runs at 92% utilization, bolstering toll revenues.

Moreover, TC Energy's South Bow pipeline expansion, completed in 2025, enhances natural gas deliveries to US Pacific Northwest markets, supporting data center power needs amid AI-driven electricity demand. With US LNG exports hitting record 90 Bcf/d in early 2026, TC Energy's infrastructure facilitates secondary flows that alleviate domestic basis blowouts in Appalachia.

From a portfolio perspective, TC Energy offers a 6.2% dividend yield on the NYSE (TRP), paid quarterly in USD, hedging against CAD weakness. Its investment-grade balance sheet, with a 4.1x net debt-to-EBITDA ratio, aligns with US utility-like stability while capturing midstream upside.

Commodity Exposure and Power Segment Tailwinds

TC Energy's fortunes are tied to natural gas fundamentals, where Henry Hub futures hover around $3.15/MMBtu as of March 25, 2026, on NYMEX. A mild winter has capped spot prices, but forecasts from the US National Weather Service point to colder late-March patterns, potentially lifting demand. TC Energy's take-or-pay contracts insulate 90% of volumes, but variable tolls expose 10-15% to basis volatility.

In the power segment, TC Energy's 4,100 MW of generation capacity, primarily hydro and natural gas, benefits from rising Ontario electricity prices amid nuclear refurbishments. Q1 2026 output rose 8%, contributing CAD 250 million in EBITDA. US investors note synergies with PJM market dynamics, where TC Energy holds stakes in efficient peakers.

Longer-term, the energy transition favors TC Energy's hydrogen-ready pipelines and carbon capture tie-ins, positioning it for IRA tax credits that enhance US project economics.

Financial Health and Capital Allocation Priorities

TC Energy maintains a solid financial profile, with CAD 15.3 billion in liquidity as of year-end 2025, covering near-term maturities. Adjusted FFO per share guidance for 2026 remains at CAD 7.20-7.40, supporting the dividend while funding CAD 7 billion in secured projects. Debt reduction efforts have lowered all-in costs to 4.6%, aiding interest coverage above 5x.

Capital allocation favors 60% to conventional pipelines, 30% to power, and 10% to emerging tech like renewables. Recent asset sales, including a CAD 1.1 billion liquids pipelines divestiture, de-risk the balance sheet. US investors appreciate this discipline, mirroring peers like Enbridge and Williams Companies.

Risks and Open Questions Weighing on Valuation

Key risks for TC Energy Corp stock include protracted Coastal GasLink litigation from First Nations groups, potentially inflating costs another CAD 2-3 billion. Regulatory uncertainty in Canada, post-federal election shifts, could tighten emissions rules, impacting Southeast Gateway expansions.

Commodity downside persists if US inventories build faster than expected, per EIA weekly reports showing +25 Bcf last week. Leverage targets at 5.0x leave limited buffer for overruns. Valuation trades at 12.5x forward EV/EBITDA, a discount to US midstream averages but reflecting Canada-specific risks.

US investors must weigh these against TC Energy's 95%+ contract coverage and growth backlog exceeding CAD 20 billion. Open questions center on Q1 earnings on May 3, 2026, for capex revisions.

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Stocks are volatile financial instruments.