Super Micro Computer Faces Profitability Test Amid AI Server Ramp-Up
28.01.2026 - 14:33:03
Super Micro Computer finds itself navigating a complex challenge. Market experts anticipate the company will report a dramatic revenue surge of approximately 80% to around $10.34 billion for the upcoming quarter. However, this impressive top-line growth is shadowed by significant concerns regarding the bottom line. The costly production ramp-up of its new Blackwell-generation AI servers is expected to severely pressure profitability, likely causing earnings to contract even as sales hit record levels.
The consensus estimate for earnings per share stands at $0.39, a figure notably lower than the $0.51 reported in the same period last year. This highlights a clear issue: margin compression. Investments in the expensive Blackwell/GB300 server platform are eroding profits. What initially appears as a growth triumph reveals itself, upon closer inspection, to be a threat to sustainable earnings.
The company's substantial order backlog, valued at over $13 billion and primarily for NVIDIA's Blackwell platform, provides a strong foundation. The critical question for investors will be answered on February 3rd: Can Super Micro translate this immense sales pipeline into durable profits?
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Super Micro Computer?
Market Sentiment Cools as Analysts Adjust Views
Recent analyst commentary has turned cautious. Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a "Sell" rating and a price target of just $26, well below the recent trading level near $31.20. Other institutions, including Citi and Mizuho, have also tempered their outlooks, setting targets at $39 and $31, respectively.
While the average price target across all analysts remains at $46.19—implying a potential upside of nearly 48%—the recent revisions from major firms have been downward. The prevailing recommendation among watchers is now "Hold," a classic signal of market uncertainty and a wait-and-see approach.
February 3rd: A Pivotal Earnings Report
The upcoming financial release on February 3rd is set to be a decisive moment. If Super Micro can outline a credible path toward more stable margins, its shares could begin a move toward the higher average analyst target. Conversely, should the report indicate that the margin weakness is structural rather than a temporary cost of expansion, the stock may face pressure, potentially testing the lower threshold identified by Goldman Sachs. The AI boom presents a massive opportunity, but for Super Micro, demonstrating follow-through on profitability is now the essential next step.
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