Strategy Inc. Faces Scrutiny Over Aggressive Bitcoin Accumulation

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The bold corporate strategy of Strategy Inc., formerly known as MicroStrategy, is drawing intense market scrutiny. The company’s unwavering commitment to amassing Bitcoin is creating headwinds for its stock, as investors question the efficiency of its capital allocation model amid a declining key metric and looming index-related risks.

Market observers are focusing on a critical internal measure known as "BTC Yield," which recently turned negative for the quarter, landing at approximately -1%. This gauge tracks the change in the ratio of Bitcoin holdings to outstanding diluted shares. A negative reading indicates that the dilution from issuing new shares has slightly outpaced the growth in Bitcoin per share, leading investors to challenge the model's effectiveness in the current pricing environment.

This development follows another substantial Bitcoin purchase. Between December 8 and 14, the company acquired an additional 10,645 BTC. The average purchase price was about $92,098 per coin, bringing the total cost to nearly $980.3 million. With this latest addition, Strategy Inc.’s corporate treasury now holds 671,268 Bitcoin.

The acquisition was funded through the sale of common and preferred stock via an ongoing at-the-market offering program. This continuous issuance of new equity to finance Bitcoin expansion is a core source of the current skepticism on Wall Street. The share price reflects this concern, closing at €135.00 on Thursday. This places the stock down more than 57% over a 12-month period and precisely at its annual low, signaling a markedly stricter market assessment of the strategy's risks.

Index Uncertainties and a Strategic Rebrand

Adding to the pressure are potential shifts in major stock indices. Analysts at JPMorgan have calculated that passive fund outflows of roughly $2.8 billion could materialize if MSCI decides to exclude companies with heavily crypto-concentrated balance sheets from its standard indexes. This would primarily affect funds that track these indexes, forcing them to sell the corresponding shares.

It is crucial to note that this potential $2.8 billion figure represents selling pressure from index followers, not a direct capital outflow from Strategy Inc. itself. MSCI's final decision is expected in January 2026, positioning it as a potential major catalyst—both positive and negative—for the stock price.

Offsetting these concerns is the company's confirmed continued inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index following its annual rebalancing in December. This retention helps secure a portion of institutional demand and prevents additional automatic selling pressure from that segment.

The company has also undertaken a strategic rebranding, changing its name from MicroStrategy to Strategy Inc. on August 11, 2025. Officially, this move reflects its dual mandate as both a Bitcoin development company and a software provider. However, the crypto aspects overwhelmingly dominate its market perception currently, with shares trading well below their yearly highs even as Bitcoin's price has moved sideways in a consolidation pattern.

The Road Ahead: A January Catalyst

All eyes are now on a key date: January 15, 2026. This is when MSCI aims to finalize its policy on including "digital asset treasury" companies in its indices. An exclusion could trigger noticeable selling pressure from passive investment vehicles, while a decision to allow them to remain would remove a significant overhang.

Despite the negative BTC Yield and index uncertainty, analyst sentiment has remained surprisingly resilient. The consensus rating on Wall Street continues to be "Strong Buy." Firms like China Renaissance have initiated coverage with bullish price targets, arguing that Strategy Inc.'s leveraged Bitcoin exposure offers greater potential than a plain spot ETF.

From a technical analysis perspective, the area around $155 is viewed as a crucial support level. A sustained break below this threshold is seen as opening the door to further downside, according to current assessments. Conversely, reversing the stock's negative trend would likely require a robust recovery in the spot price of Bitcoin above $95,000, which could help brighten the recently skeptical view of the company's capital model.