SoftBank's AI Bet Pays Off as OpenAI Valuations Boost Profit

SoftBank JP3436100006

SoftBank Group delivered its fourth straight quarter of profit, bolstered by sizable mark-to-market gains tied to OpenAI. The Tokyo-based tech conglomerate has benefited from its aggressive pivot toward artificial intelligence and posted the strongest earnings in years. The third-quarter results for fiscal 2025 show that the AI-driven strategy is paying off.

• Net profit for the nine months ending December 2025: 3.17 trillion yen (about $20.7 billion)
• In the third quarter alone: 248.6 billion yen profit after a 369 billion yen loss in the prior-year quarter
• OpenAI stake roughly 11% following investments of $34.6 billion
• Vision Fund swings to a 3.6 trillion yen profit after a loss in the previous year

Valuation gains underpin the results

For the nine months through December 2025, SoftBank?s net income rose from 636 billion yen a year earlier to 3.17 trillion yen. The surge is largely attributed to the OpenAI holding, whose rising value is reflected on SoftBank?s books.

The Vision Fund, long a source of concern, also turned positive. After posting a loss of 310 billion yen in the year-ago period, the unit recorded a profit of 3.6 trillion yen. The ?Cluster of No.1 Strategy??which concentrates investments in leading AI companies?appears to be paying off.

Paper profits dominate

SoftBank?s chief financial officer Yoshimitsu Goto presented the results with confidence. A closer look, however, shows that a large portion of the gains are unrealized valuation items rather than operating cash flows. The net margin jumped to 47.9%?driven by one-off effects?while revenue growth slowed to a more modest 5.72 trillion yen after a 7.9% increase.

The conglomerate?s fortunes remain closely tied to the swings in high-growth tech valuations. Its portfolio spans Arm, OpenAI, and numerous AI startups, which benefits from the current tech rally but carries greater risk if market conditions turn.

PayPay IPO on the horizon

On February 13, SoftBank filed the paperwork for an initial public offering of its payments subsidiary PayPay. The move signals an intention to unlock additional assets within its domestic ecosystem and improve liquidity. Investors reacted positively, with SoftBank?s stock rising about 2.4% following the quarterly release.

The coming months will reveal whether SoftBank can convert AI momentum into sustainable growth or if the rebound is largely a reflection of favorable valuation trends.