Siemens Energy's Pivotal Moment: All Eyes on Wind Unit's Turnaround

Siemens Energy posts record orders and profit, but investor focus is on the Siemens Gamesa wind division's path to breakeven by 2026. Divergent analyst views highlight the stakes.

The strategic evolution of Siemens Energy took a significant step forward as its former parent company, Siemens AG, substantially reduced its stake from 14.96% to 5.54%. This move underscores the energy technology firm's increasing independence. While the core business is delivering powerful results, investor focus is intensely fixed on a single, critical milestone: Can the troubled Siemens Gamesa wind division reach breakeven by 2026?

Record Orders and a Persistent Challenge

Operational performance provides a strong foundation. For the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year, new orders surged by 33.9% to €17.6 billion, pushing the order backlog to a record €146 billion. The company's gas turbine manufacturing capacity is fully booked through 2028. Net profit soared to €746 million, nearly triple the figure from the same period last year.

In contrast, the Siemens Gamesa renewable energy unit remains a concern, albeit a diminishing one. Its quarterly loss narrowed dramatically from -€374 million to -€46 million. Management's explicit goal is to achieve a breakeven result for the full 2026 fiscal year. They anticipate the first half will remain in negative territory, banking on a substantial recovery in the second half to meet the target.

Share Buybacks and Divergent Analyst Views

To bolster shareholder value, Siemens Energy initiated a share repurchase program in March. The company has already withdrawn approximately 5.85 million shares from the market. The current program is authorized for up to €2 billion, with a long-term plan for buybacks totaling as much as €6 billion by 2028.

Market experts, however, are deeply divided on the equity's prospects, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the wind business. Their price targets reveal a striking disparity:

• JPMorgan: €200 (anticipates a strong second quarter)
• RBC Capital: €185 (which would equate to a new all-time high)
• Bernstein: €150
• DZ Bank: €128 (Rating: "Hold")
• Barclays: €90

The €110 chasm between the most pessimistic and most optimistic forecasts highlights how decisively the Gamesa turnaround narrative is driving valuation.

May 12th: A Key Date for Clarity

The upcoming release of second-quarter results on May 12th is seen as a major directional indicator for the stock. If Siemens Gamesa can demonstrate convincing progress toward its breakeven objective, it could establish the groundwork for a comprehensive re-rating of Siemens Energy shares, lending credence to the more optimistic analyst projections.

For the full fiscal year, corporate guidance remains unchanged. The company confirms it expects revenue growth between 11% and 13%, a profit margin of 9% to 11%, and a net income ranging from €3 billion to €4 billion.