Shell's Global Network Proves Decisive in India's LNG Crisis

Shell's agile LNG response in India and strong refining margins contrast with lower gas output guidance, creating divergent analyst views ahead of earnings.

Shell's first-quarter performance in 2026 is being shaped by a stark contrast: exceptional strength in its trading and refining divisions against a backdrop of unexpected gas supply disruptions. This divergence is fueling a wide range of opinions among market analysts ahead of the company's full earnings release.

The energy giant's logistical prowess was put to the test in March. When QatarEnergy declared force majeure on liquefied natural gas deliveries following Iranian attacks on Gulf infrastructure, India's energy supply was thrown into jeopardy. The country typically relies on Qatar for nearly half its LNG imports. While competitors struggled with shipping bottlenecks for alternative supplies from the US or Russia, Shell leveraged its global network to orchestrate a swift response. The company redirected cargoes from Oman, Australia, and Nigeria, utilizing its fleet of over 65 chartered vessels and its own import terminal in Gujarat. This move allowed it to bypass the congested Strait of Hormuz.

The intervention was decisive. Shell imported the largest monthly LNG volumes in its history to India during March, instantly becoming the country's single-largest supplier. In a spot procurement tender by Indian fertilizer manufacturers, the company secured four out of six offered units. The crisis response prevented a collapse in the nation's agricultural industry; urea plants that had seen utilization drop to 70% at the peak of the disruption were meeting 95% of their gas needs by April 9. The elevated import levels are projected to continue throughout April, with further tenders for 10 to 12 TBtus expected this week.

This operational agility is mirrored in its financial segments. Downstream operations are thriving, with refinery margins climbing to $17 per barrel in Q1, up from $14 in the final quarter of 2025. Marketing results are also expected to be significantly above the prior-year level. The Renewables and Energy Solutions division anticipates an adjusted result between $0.2 and $0.7 billion, an improvement from $0.1 billion in the previous quarter. Furthermore, Shell's oil trading business capitalized on Middle East volatility to deliver significantly higher results compared to the prior period.

The one clear soft spot is in the Integrated Gas segment. Due to the Qatar disruptions, Shell has lowered its production guidance to a range of 880,000 to 920,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from the previous forecast of 920,000 to 980,000.

This mixed picture has led to sharply divergent analyst views. On April 10, TD Cowen slightly lowered its price target to $110 from $112 but reaffirmed its "Buy" rating. A day earlier, Wells Fargo raised its target substantially to $94 from $77, maintaining an "Equal Weight" rating, citing an adjusted long-term oil price forecast of $75 per barrel Brent following the Iran ceasefire. Also on April 9, Rothschild & Co Redburn downgraded the stock to "Neutral" from "Buy," with a price target of 3,640 pence.

Shell's share price, currently trading around €40.02, reflects the recent momentum. It has gained over 24% since the start of the year and is hovering near its 52-week high of €40.64, standing approximately 22% above its 200-day moving average. The full financial impact of its record-breaking March in India and the overall quarterly balance will be quantified when Shell publishes its complete Q1 results on May 7.