Rigetti Shares Face Mounting Pressure as Quantum Hype Fades

Rigetti US76655K1034

The investment thesis for quantum computing pioneer Rigetti is undergoing a severe reality check. A wave of industry-wide skepticism and disappointing financial results has forced a dramatic reassessment of the company's near-term commercial prospects, sending its stock into a steep decline.

Having soared to an all-time peak in mid-October, Rigetti's share price has since collapsed, erasing a significant portion of its previous gains. In just over two months, the equity has shed more than 60% of its value from that high, a clear indicator of rapidly diminishing risk appetite among its investors.

The stock currently trades around €20.00, hovering just above its weekly low and approximately 59% below its 52-week high of €48.36. The sustained trading price, which sits roughly 23% beneath its 50-day moving average, confirms a firmly established downward trend.

Disappointing Quarterly Results Dampen Outlook

The catalyst for this broad re-rating was the publication of Rigetti's Q3 2025 financial figures. Instead of showcasing an acceleration in commercial adoption, the report revealed a concerning contraction in business activity.

Key financial data from the quarter includes:
- Q3 2025 Revenue: $1.9 million
- Q3 2024 Revenue: $2.4 million
- Year-over-Year Revenue Change: -20.8%

This revenue decline is particularly jarring for a market that had anticipated rising income and new pilot projects. The stark divergence between prior optimism and current performance has compelled investors to sharply discount the growth premium previously baked into the valuation.

Furthermore, the absolute revenue figures remain very low. Year-to-date revenue for 2025 totals $5.2 million, following $10.8 million for the full year 2024. For a company positioned as a pure-play quantum hardware developer, stagnant or declining sales intensify concerns that its capital requirements will remain elevated long before any path to profitability is established.

Industry-Wide Sentiment Shift Adds to Woes

The company's specific challenges are compounded by a sector-wide cooling of enthusiasm. Several prominent industry leaders have recently tempered expectations regarding the timeline for commercially viable quantum computers.

Statements from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang garnered significant attention. He outlined a potential 15 to 30-year window before large-scale, economically useful quantum computers could become a reality. For investors with a shorter-term focus, this represents a far more extended horizon than what was previously reflected in share prices.

This elongated timeline implies that Rigetti may face a prolonged period characterized by minimal revenue and high research and development intensity. Market observers now perceive an increased risk that the company will require repeated infusions of fresh capital before its business model can become self-sustaining.

Technical Analysis Reinforces the Bearish Narrative

From a charting perspective, the outlook remains weak. Critical support levels around $40 and subsequently $30 were breached in recent weeks with little resistance. The subsequent slide into the $22 to $20 range has further cemented the negative momentum.

The current Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 51.1 indicates neither an overbought nor an oversold condition. This aligns with a market that is currently reacting less to technical indicators and more to fundamental headwinds: declining revenue, a sharply lower stock price, and an industry narrative that has moved decisively away from promises of an imminent breakthrough.

Conclusion: The Burden of Proof is on Rigetti

Rigetti now finds itself in a precarious position, pressured by a triple threat of significant revenue decline, a loss of over 60% from its peak, and a more cautious industry outlook. The path forward hinges on the company's ability to demonstrate tangible progress in commercializing its technology and stabilizing its revenue streams in the coming quarters. In the absence of such positive signals, the market is unlikely to reverse its substantial valuation discount.